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30 July 2026

Electoral Calculus: General Election Prediction Updated 28 July 2026 - Current Prediction: Labour short 82 of majority

A definite 'Burnham bounce' can be seen in the polling numbers this month. Labour have overturned Reform's lead, which was 6pc last month, to edge just a fraction ahead. When translated into seats, this puts Labour ahead of the Conservative by over 100 seats, and pushes Reform into third place.

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