Leaving the EU does pose risks to Britain’s global standing, writes former UN ambassador Mark Lyall Grant.
[...]The first, and most important, risk is economic. The key to reversing the widespread perception of the UK’s decline in the 1970s was not entry into what was then the European Economic Community nor the Falklands war (though that was a very important demonstration of both military capability and political will). Rather, it was the domestic turnround of the economy in the 1980s. The reverse is also true. If the economy suffers as a result of the uncertainties leading up to Brexit, or of Brexit itself, that will have a direct impact on the UK’s international influence.
It is not just a question of a depreciating pound undermining the country’s ability to sustain its defence capabilities, or of increased welfare payments calling into question the overseas aid commitment, or even of falling inward investment undermining its export potential.
A leader’s influence in international forums has relatively little to do with his or her personal qualities. It is primarily a matter of representing a strong economy and having a strong political base. In my experience, the former ultimately trumps the latter. Philip Hammond, the chancellor, is therefore right to emphasise the paramount importance of economic factors in the Brexit negotiations.
Even after Brexit, the UK will be a member of more international organisations than any other country The second risk is a reduced capacity to promote the UK’s international objectives. A year of preparation, and 18 months of Brexit negotiations, were always going to consume a huge amount of political oxygen. But increased domestic political uncertainty following the general election in June has exacerbated this dynamic. Brexit has dominated news coverage and consumed parliament since its return this month. Despite extraordinary events elsewhere, not least on the Korean peninsula, it is hard to see this focus changing over the next 18 months.
I remain confident that the UK will eventually reach a deal with the EU, both on the divorce arrangements and on the future relationship after Brexit. The latter must allow the UK to work seamlessly with its European neighbours to tackle common threats — including terrorism, migration pressures and climate change. [...]
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