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14 October 2018

英ガーディアン紙:EYアイテム・クラブ(シンクタンク)、合意なきEU(欧州連合)離脱リスクで英国経済成長率を金融危機後最低の1.3%に下方修正


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The British economy is heading for its worst year in almost a decade amid the growing risks from no-deal Brexit, according to a leading economic forecaster.


After official figures revealed zero growth in GDP in August, the EY Item Club said the economy would struggle to recover in the final months of the year owing to the increasing likelihood of Britain crashing out of the EU in less than six months’ time.

The group of economists, which is the only non-government forecasting organisation to use the Treasury modelling of the economy, said it had downgraded its growth forecast for this year and next as a consequence.

It forecast growth of 1.3% for the whole of 2018, down from a previous estimate of 1.4%. This would be the worst annual period for growth since the financial crisis. It also downgraded the outlook for the second quarter running.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EY Item Club forecast a modest recovery next year if there was a smooth Brexit deal, with growth of 1.5%, down from its previous estimate of 1.6%.

Economists have said failure to reach such a deal could significantly harm the UK economy, with the International Monetary Fund warning of “dire consequences” for growth.

The government’s economic forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility, last week raised the prospect of a no-deal scenario triggering border delays, companies and consumers stockpiling food and other supplies, and aircraft being unable to fly in and out of Britain. [...]

Full article on The Guardian



© The Guardian


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