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05 March 2015

ロイター:ECB(欧州中央銀行)、成長見通しを引き上げ、国債買入計画の詳細を公表へ


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Keen to keep a low profile over the Greek crisis, the ECB will focus on improved growth prospects when it meets on March 5 and unveil some but not all the details of its 1 trillion euros-plus bond buying plan.


Meeting in Cyprus, the ECB will keep rates on hold, likely lift growth forecasts to reflect a string of positive data surprises but cut inflation projections as it incorporates the full effect of a dramatic oil price fall, backing its case to buy 60 billion euros worth of bonds a month from March to spur inflation. 

The bank has a long way to go to convince markets. Only half of the economists polled by Reuters think bond buying will help inflation rise towards the target of close to but below two percent and half think the purchases will be extended beyond September 2016. 

The ECB has said its money printing would last "at least" until September 2016 and until a "sustained adjustment" in the inflation path emerges.

Markets will be looking for how quantitative easing will work, when the buying will start, whether it applies to paper with negative yields and how the purchases will be distributed along the yield curve.

Anticipation of the QE programme has driven euro zone borrowing costs down to the point where Spain can borrow for 10 years at just 1.3 percent and investors actually pay for the privilege of lending to Germany for five years. Yields in Italy, Spain and Portugal dropped to record lows this week.

Another concern is whether the ECB will find enough bonds to buy as the market is flush with uninvested cash while banks are under obligation to hold top tier assets, like government debt. 

"The massive ECB buying will start in times of stagnating supply at the bond market," SEB economist Thomas Köbel said. "We see some risks that the ECB may be unable to buy bonds at the targeted monthly rate of 60 billion euros."

Full article on Reuters



© Reuters


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