27 May 2014

The EP election: sceptics to be marginalised in four weeks?

The EPP remains the single largest group – at 213 members and assuming the same national party membership - for the fourth Parliament in a row. In the event, the S&D did not do as well as the polls predicted. Far from level pegging with the EPP, they only have 190 seats.

The next few weeks will show if the sceptics can form cohesive groupings on the Left and Right. But the real tests will come later when difficult votes take place. How will MEPs committed to unravelling `Europe’ vote when they see they will lose? Will they even vote? If not, the `grand coalition’ will continue to dominate.

However, political cohesion will have its first test on the question of the Commission President – see the short-term Timeline of events. As the EPP is indisputably the largest group, it may be difficult for the Heads of Government to avoid giving Juncker a chance to see if he can achieve an outright majority in Parliament: 376 votes.

If the EPP could rely on support from all its members, all ALDE and all Greens, then Juncker could get 330 votes – 46 short of the majority. ECR support could just get him to the magic number. But will British Tories support him? However, a combination of EPP, S&D and ALDE – the parties fully committed to this parliamentary process – could reach 467 votes – easily enough to give a majority even if some members failed to support someone of such a different political complexion. The sceptics could have their first taste of marginalisation.

But that is not to suggest that the major parties have failed to heed a powerful message from their voters. The clamour for 'reform' will be intense in all quarters. But there are about 751 definitions of the term.

Implications for economic and financial policy

For the economic and financial services fraternities, the key question will be membership of ECON. Returning members include many well-known names – in alphabetical order: Ferber, Ferreira, Gauzes, Giegold, Goulard, Hokmark, Lamberts, Lulling, Skinner, Swinburne, Thyssesn. Amongst the substitutes, Beres, Ford and Goebbels were returned. In all, more than 20 members and substitutes who played a significant role (in a very subjective judgement) in the last Parliament will be available to put their names forward for ECON membership. Additionally, Commissioner Rehn was elected and it is a safe bet that he will wish to join ECON.  So this should allay the fears of observers that the massive turnover in the Parliament as a whole could translate into a much weaker ECON. 

Graham Bishop - Consultant on EU Integration - Political, Financial, Economic, Budgetary

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