02 October 2016

Financial Times: Theresa May has chosen the right time for Article 50

[...] Mrs May has made the right decision. Since the unexpected win for the Leave campaign in June’s EU referendum, her government has needed as much preparation time as possible. In recent weeks, however, there have been complaints about the delay in announcing a Brexit timetable. These come from Brexit backers anxious to see the vote realised but also from businesses currently stuck in limbo and desperate to have some certainty about what lies ahead.

Combined with the announcement of a “Great Repeal bill”, which will convert EU legislation from the past 40 years into British law and allow Parliament to repeal elements at will, there is much for the Conservatives to cheer as they gather for their annual conference in Birmingham.

The timing is good domestically — Brexiters cannot argue that the government is delaying Article 50 unnecessarily, while Remainers can now no longer say the government does not have a plan. It also means that Britain will have left the EU in time for the 2019 European elections, relieving the need for Britain to elect one final set of MEPs before waving farewell to Brussels.

In Europe, however, it is more complicated. This announcement means that Brexit will be under way during the French and German elections in May and September 2017 respectively, and our negotiations will become a ballot box issue in those countries. Both of these national elections are set to unleash populist forces keen to use Brexit as an example of a successful nationalist revolt against the EU.

With this in mind, EU heavyweights Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, and European Parliament president Martin Schulz have urged Britain to activate Article 50 as soon as possible — but there is no doubt it is going to be a disruptive time for the EU.

In the UK, Mrs May has given voters the illusion of a big announcement, as there is so much we still do not know, including any indication of what type of Brexit deal the government will be pursuing. Liam Fox, international trade secretary, has hinted that Britain will leave the customs union and single market but this has not been officially confirmed. David Davis, Brexit secretary, will outline his thoughts on Sunday afternoon without giving too many details away.

The May government is desperately keen to avoid her predecessor’s error of revealing too much before talks have begun. Such a clandestine approach works for now — but it will be difficult to maintain throughout the process.

Mrs May has so far assuaged voters with the meaningless trope that “Brexit means Brexit”. Now we have some indication of what that means. Britain will be out of the EU by 2019. It may sound simple but the process to come will be anything but.

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