03 September 2013

OECD: Advanced economies growing again but some emerging economies slowing

A moderate recovery is underway in the major advanced economies, according to the OECD's latest Interim Economic Assessment. Growth is proceeding at encouraging rates in North America, Japan and the UK.

The euro area as a whole is out of recession, although output remains weak in a number of countries.

Economic growth in the major advanced economies is expected to continue at a similar pace in the second half of 2013 as in the second quarter. In the three largest OECD economies, the US, Japan and Germany, activity is expected to expand by about 2½ per cent annualised in the third and fourth quarters. France is forecast to grow by about 1½ per cent annualised in the second half of the year, while in Italy growth is expected to remain mildly negative.

Presenting the Assessment in Paris, OECD Deputy Chief Economist Jorgen Elmeskov said: “The gradual pick-up in momentum in the advanced economies is encouraging but a sustainable recovery is not yet firmly established. Major risks remain. The euro area is still vulnerable to renewed financial markets, banking and sovereign debt tensions. High levels of debt in some emerging markets have increased their vulnerability to financial shocks. And a renewal of brinksmanship over fiscal policy in the US could weaken confidence and trigger new episodes of financial turmoil."

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