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2014 Timeline

Graham sets out the 2014 timeline for the political, financial, economic and budgetary fields, with a focus on the forthcoming EU elections. [View original document]

2014 in Prospect – an Exciting Year Ahead for Europe

By the end of 2014, the EU will have a new Commission, a new Parliament, further economic integration of the euro area  coupled with an effective banking union (even if it is not as complete as many had hoped). The May elections to the European Parliament could well turn out to be something of a plebiscite on the conduct of the crisis, and the result in the UK may have sent a strong signal about the chances of the UK remaining a member of the EU.

Accordingly, GrahamBishop.com is launching its new monitor of up-coming events along the 2014 Timeline. Updates will be available on our website as we roll out additional content.

Latest postings

In this section, we will list the postings to this document in the last 14 days (approx.) with a dynamic link so that you can jump straight to the new item.

22.-25.5.2014:  EUROPEAN ELECTIONS

Source: TNS/Scytl in cooperation with the European Parliament

19.5.2014: The Times (subscription) reports that Number 10 is trying to block the German Socialist Martin Schulz' bid to become the next European Commission President, over his anti-reform views and fears that it would land a serious blow to David Cameron’s renegotiation plans.  

13.5.2014: "Warfare" between Eurosceptic camps: Marine Le Pen, leader of France's National Front (FN), has accused Nigel Farage of the UK Independence Party of "aggression" against her party, for labelling it racist. Mr Farage had rejected ties with the FN for its "anti-Semitism and general prejudice". View (in context)

12.5.2014: The European Parliamentary Research Service published a compilation of Voting advice applications (VAA), tools designed to help make an informed decision in the upcoming EP elections.

In addition to national applications designed for European elections, there are several pan-European tools to discover the current political landscape. Electio2014, MyVote2014 and euandi are three examples of such tools. View

13.5.2014: "Warfare" between Eurosceptic camps: Marine Le Pen, leader of France's National Front (FN), has accused Nigel Farage of the UK Independence Party of "aggression" against her party, for labelling it racist. Mr Farage had rejected ties with the FN for its "anti-Semitism and general prejudice". View (in context)

12.5.2014: The European Parliamentary Research Service published a compilation of Voting advice applications (VAA), tools designed to help make an informed decision in the upcoming EP elections.

In addition to national applications designed for European elections, there are several pan-European tools to discover the current political landscape. Electio2014, MyVote2014 and euandi are three examples of such tools. View

13.5.2014: Several new political forces will make their appearance in the European Parliament for the first time following the European elections, reports EurActiv. All will be "non-attached" in the beginning, but many of their MEPs will gravitate towards established political groups, becoming "kingmakers".

11.5.2014: Jean-Claude Juncker said he had won assurances from German chancellor Angela Merkel that he would become the next EC president if their centre-right bloc wins the European parliamentary elections on 22-25 May. Juncker's comments, made in an interview with Bild am Sonntag paper, contrasted with Merkel’s own suggestion on Saturday that the real choice might be made – as in the past – only after prolonged horse-trading between national governments. View

12.5.2014: YouGov surveyed over 8,000 voters in six countries participating in this month’s European elections, and found anti-EU and nationalist parties on the rise across the continent. View

12.5.2014: With two weeks to go until the European elections, Angela Merkel is reportedly trying to influence the internal functioning of the European Parliament, attempting to prevent the President of the European Parliament from chairing meetings.

8.5.2014: An Ipsos-MORI poll of almost 9,000 people across twelve EU member states has found that 62 per cent were either "not at all" or "not so much" interested in the upcoming European elections, with only 35 per cent saying they would definitely vote.

8.5.2014: European Voice reported on the "uninspired televised debate" between Schulz and Juncker on German TV (view). The two candidates were "on message and in control", unlike in previous encounters where Juncker looked "cranky and uninterested" and Schulz was "out of his depth". Full artilce (subscription)

8.5.2014: Süddeutsche reports that Bernd Lucke, leader of Germany’s anti-euro AfD party, reaffirms that he wants his party to join the European Conservatives and Reformists Group within the European Parliament – noting that he’s "in good talks" with the Czech and the Polish parties who are part of the group, while the British Conservatives have not yet agreed to the move.

3.5.2014: Guy Verhofstadt attacks tolerance of anti-europeanism

Guy Verhofstadt, ALDE group leader and Liberal and Democrat party candidate for the Commission Presidency, rejected the populism of eurosceptics and the tolerance of such overt populism within mainstream parties like the European People's Party instead of sticking up for the European Union and the need to build a closer union, especially in the fields of energy, digital and capital markets and foreign policy. Press release. (in context)

2.5.2014: After the first-ever election debate, a snap poll judged ALDE’s candidate Guy Verhofstadt to have won the contest with 55 per cent support, while the EPP’s Jean Claude Juncker – and narrow favourite to win the Presidency – was judged to be the weakest, with 9 per cent. View.

1.5.2014: Marine Le Pen launches European campaign with attack on EU. With the far-right FN aiming to spearhead an anticipated surge by populist parties across Europe in the poll, Ms Le Pen told cheering supporters that it was the “duty of patriots” to vote against Brussels. View FT article (subscription).

30.4.2014: In a Guardian blog post, Simon Jenkins cites Open Europe’s recent poll which found that 73 per cent of Britons and 58 per cent of Germans want their national parliaments to have more powers to block new EU laws, with a mere 8 per cent of Britons and 21 per cent of Germans supporting only the European Parliament having this power. View.

30.4.2014: EPP are still leading S&D by a small margin in our latest forecast: by 213 seats to 208. With just under a month to go, the election is "too close to call". View. Full Poll Watch data. 

29.4.2014: Latest projections of seats in the Parliament:

Source: collaboration between the EP and TNS Opinion

28.4.2014: The European Parliament launched a page entitled "European elections - Events that will help you to decide", including an interactive timeline. View

24.4.2014: A group of pro-Europe British Conservatives has decided to launch a new party to stand in the upcoming European elections as an alternative to David Cameron’s Conservatives, and Nigel Farage’s eurosceptic UK Independence Party (UKIP): the 4 Freedoms Party (UK EPP). View.

23.4.2014: EPP remain just ahead of S&D: on 217 to 208 seats. While S&D parties have remained stable in European election polls in most countries over the past week, EPP parties have fallen slightly in France, Finland and Poland. View. Full Poll Watch data.

23.4.2014: Speaking in Brussels, the European Peoples’ Party (EPP) lead candidate and aspirant Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker insisted that the character of the elections had changed after Lisbon, and the victor would be installed in Berlaymont, the HQ of the European Commission, as President. View. (in context)

20.4.2014: In an interview with the Sunday Times (subscription), National Front leader Marie Le Pen argued that:

"We want to change the EU so that it has as little power as possible and we can recuperate as much power as possible for our country until we win power and organise a referendum on leaving the EU".

19.4.2014: In an interview with Süddeutsche, European Council President Herman van Rompuy argued that the European elections will be dominated by national factors:

"I'm no enthusiastic devotee of this idea of having leading candidates [nominated by European parliamentary groups]… this is unlikely to significantly influence voters’ behaviour."

18.4.2014: Antonio Tajani, Vice President of the European Commission in charge of Industry and entrepreneurship, will be on electoral leave from 18 April to 25 May 2014 to participate to the European Parliament elections. During his leave, Commissioner Barnier will assume temporary responsibility for his portfolio. View. (in context)

18.4.2014: Jean-Claude Juncker promised a Commission of "politicians, not bureaucrats" and calls for strengthened Franco-German relations. View.

16.4.2014: European Voice published a country-by-country guide to the European elections. View

16.4.2014: Jean-Claude Juncker the EPP candidate for the Commission presidency, has tweeted that if appointed to the post, he would ask the Finnish government to nominate Jyrki Katainen, the country’s current Prime Minister, to the Commission, and that Juncker would give him a significant portfolio. View.

As provided for in the Code of Conduct for Commissioners this leave is unpaid and during that period Commissioners may not use the human or material resources of the Commission. Press release (in context)

Dying days of 2013… what happened?!

• European Council
• Legislation agreed

Part I: January 2014 to April 27^th (end of last Plenary)

Bit of a Part: April 28^th to early June

Part II: July to end October

• New Commission President
• Economics Commissioner
• Internal Market Commissioner
• European Council agendas

Part III: November to December

• New Council President
• New Eurogroup President

Dying days of 2013… what happened?!

European Council

The December European Council came and went with barely a trace of last year’s Four Presidents’ report “Towards a Genuine EMU”. About the most tangible decision of this week’s Summit was to welcome ECOFIN’s `general approach’ to the SRM. So far, they are nearly the only group which welcomed it whilst, in contrast, the European Parliament effectively declared war on ECOFIN.

European Parliament President Schulz delivered a remarkable speech to the Heads of State/Government at the opening of the Council. It was remarkable for both the uncompromising content and the fact that it was delivered by a declared candidate for the Presidency of the European Commission – an appointment in the hands of the group to whom the speech was delivered.

The forceful declaration by the President of the Parliament – bolstered “by an overwhelming majority, with support across all party lines” sets the Parliament on a dramatic collision course with ECOFIN. At this stage, it is difficult to see that a total re-structuring of the SRM proposal can be engineered in time for a vote by the final Parliament Plenary in April. So the SRM is unlikely to be enacted in 2014.

However, such a dramatic stand-off between the European Parliament and ECOFIN on the SRM issue may produce some revolutionary political fireworks influencing the European elections next May. This could convert the elections into something of a referendum on Europe’s handling of the crisis because the outcome would probably be binary:

1. Parliament backs down completely and meekly – confirming the electorate’s perceived view that it is a body that does not matter (so why bother to turn out to vote?). Amidst a low turnout, the anti-Europeans do well and the new Parliament stymies further integration, thus risking unravelling the revolutionary economic governance developments of the past three years.

2. The Member States back down – and confirm a real shift in power to `Europe’ and away from the States. Electors should then realise that it is worth voting for a body that can represent them against the power of even the biggest states.

Link to full article

Legislation agreed

Some major pieces of legislation reached political agreement between the co-legislators (Council and Parliament) amidst the Christmas rush but agreement failed to be reached on the SRM (see above) and also MiFID. So the early part of 2014 will be dominated by the attempts to wrap up these dossiers before the Parliament going into recess.

• BRRD link
• Market Abuse link
• CSD link

Part I: January 2014 to April 27^th (end of last Plenary)

The 'political families’ in the European Parliament will select their candidates for the Commission Presidency – but it is far from automatic that the candidate of the largest grouping will become Commission President (see New Commission President)

• S&D: selected EP President Martin Schulz in November 2013 but, notably, the French Socialists did not support him initially. He will be officially declared Common Candidate at the PES Election Congress, which will take place in Rome on 1 March, when also the manifesto will be adopted and the PES European election campaign officially launched.

• ALDE: Agreed their Party manifesto in London in December 2103 and intended to select their candidate at a Congress in Brussels on 1st February. The two candidates, Guy Verhofstadt (former Belgian Prime Minister and now ALDE leader in the EP) and Olli Rehn (Vice President of the European Commission – in charge of economic affairs), however, came to an agreement on 20 January, stating that they would jointly lead the campaign, on an equal footing, but that Guy Verhofstadt will be the ALDE Party's candidate for Commission President and that Rehn the party's candidate for one of the other senior posts in the EU, in particular in the field of economic affairs and foreign policy. Verhofstadt's candidacy was confirmed at the European  Democratic Party meeting on 12 March.

• EPP:  
  • 13 February: EPP Summit - opening of the submission of candidacies. They need the support of their own member party, plus the endorsement of two member parties from two EU countries other than the country of origin of the candidate
  • 5 March:  last day to submit candidature
  • 6 March (Dublin Congress) – review of the candidatures at the Political Assembly; validation of the candidatures and submission to the Congress for a vote
  • 7 March (Dublin Congress) – Congress delegates elect the candidate and launch the campaign. Jean-Claude Juncker was officially announced as EPP candidate at the Congress, having received 382 of the 627 votes cast (61 per cent). He was backed by the Chairmen of EPP parliamentary groups in the national parliaments of the EU in April.
  • Possible candidates were:
    • Enda Kenny (Irish Prime Minister) has ruled himself out BUT wait for the final horse trading around the June European Council, even if he continues to decline at a Congress in his own capital.
    • Jyrki Katainen (Prime Minister of Finland) has also ruled himself out and hasn’t been nominated by his party, so at this stage cannot become EPP candidate. -> He announced that he will step down in June, being "interested in European or other international positions, should the opportunity arise". 
    • Michel Barnier (European Commissioner in charge of Internai Market policy) has been campaigning openly for some time. But will President Hollande want to support someone from a different  political family? He received 245 of the 627 votes (39 per cent) cast at the EPP Congress.
    • Christine Lagarde (IMF) – talked about early on but
    • Donald Tusk (Prime Minister of Poland)  but not a euro area person
    • Jean-Claude Juncker (former PM of Luxembourg/President of Eurogroup) has officially tabled his bid for the EPP nomination and has been formally endorsed (amongst others) by the German centre-right CDU/CSU parties
    • Valdis Dombrovskis (former Prime Minister of Lithuania), has officially tabled his bid for the EPP nomination and is supported by the Conservative parties in the three Baltic states. However he withdrew his bid on the day before the vote.
    • Germany's David McAllister has also been talked about, notably by David Cameron (Belfast Telegraph). McAllister is heading the CDU candidates for the European Parliament elections and seems a good bet for a role in the Commission, especially if Martin Schulz fails to win the Commission presidency and Merkel wants a CDU candidate.

• Greens: Primary election was held between 11 November 2013 and 28 January 2014. The European Greens have subsequently announced the two leading candidates of the common Green EU-campaign are the French José Bové and the German Ska Keller.
• AECR: Alliance of European Conservatives and Reformists parties will not field a candidate for the Commission Presidency as they regard the process as lacking in public support and legal authority.

• 'Eurosceptics': Marine Le Pen's new far-right alliance has announced it will not put forward a candidate for European Commission presidents.

Bit of a Part: April 28^th to early June

Table

Source: European Parliament

Once the Parliament goes into recess, the action moves to the electors of the Member States. The seat distribution chart above illustrates the fine political balance of the current Parliament. The number of seats will fall from the current 766 to 751. Before the constitutive plenary session in July, the newly elected MEPs will come together and meet according to political affiliations. The official political groups forming the Parliament should be created by late June.

The precise political composition of the new Parliament will not only have a major influence on some EU policy (PollWatch video) but also on the choice of the next President of the European Commission, and then on to the complexion of the new Commission as a whole. It is NOT the prerogative of the largest grouping to name its candidate forthwith as President. (See comment below). The potential for a higher (or lower) turnout will make forecasts of the outcome particularly difficult.

According to media reports, Herman Van Rompuy, the president of the European Council, has convened an informal meeting of the EU's national leaders on the evening of 27 May, two days after elections to the European Parliament end, with the purpose of charting a course for the smooth appointment of key posts such as Council President, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (currently Baroness Ashton) and new president of the European Commission.

In December 2013, the Parliament voted a resolution on 'multi-tier governance’ link that provides for the possibility of an EMU sub-committee of the new Parliament. 

Part II: July to end October

Candidates for the Presidency of the European Parliament may be proposed either by a political group or by a minimum of forty MEPs. The election is held on the first session day by secret paper ballot.

September: The Commissioners-designate appear before the parliamentary committee(s) relevant to their prospective fields of responsibility. The hearings are held in public. Afterwards, each committee meets in camera to draft its evaluation of the candidate's expertise and performance, which is sent to the President of the Parliament. In the past, these hearings have led to candidate commissioners withdrawing or having their portfolio changed.

October (tbc): After this vetting process, the Commission's President presents the full College of Commissioners and its programme at a session of Parliament. The Commission President, the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and other members of the Commission need to be approved by a vote of consent by Parliament. If Parliament approves the President and Commissioners, they can be appointed by the Council, acting by qualified majority.

New Commission President

The political families of the European Parliament are talking in terms of their absolute right to elect the next President of the European Commission. The political colour of the President may be crucial to the general flavour of legislation on economic and finance for the next five years as the President has a powerful influence on the choice of personnel as Commissioner and the allocation of portfolios. But the situation is not quite so simple! The actual test is that the candidate has to achieve the support of a majority of the all the Members of the European Parliament – not just those actually voting. So the largest political family will not necessarily be able to take the post as there will be much negotiation to assemble a majority in the Parliament.

Economics Commissioner

This is probably the key role as far as investors are concerned. Commissioner Rehn was made a Vice President of the Commission in recognition of the growing importance of the role as the crisis wore on. The new governance procedures give the Commission’s economic judgements great influence on the fine balance of policies on austerity and competitiveness – perhaps at the expense of `social Europe’. That balance will be a key issue for investors during the next Commission.

Internal Market Commissioner

For the financial services industry, the key Commissioner is the Internal Market portfolio.  However, for many Commission’s past there has been a debate about whether to split off the financial services parts and fold them into DG ECFIN - in charge of economic matters. In the end, this is a choice for the new Commission President. Given the rising influence of the Economic Commissioner as the de facto Finance Minster of Europe, the new President would need to be particularly confident to add further powers to the `Finance Minister’.

Typically, the new Commissioner has taken stock of what is left over from the predecessor and then started a review of what has to be done. That points to a new programme in spring 2015 that will have to deal with long-term investing, shadow banking and the Liikanen agenda on the very structure of banks. But any drive to enhance the role of capital market finance could well influence market prices so investors should also pay attention to this choice

(Note to UK: the requirement that Commissioner candidates must have a “European commitment” may limit the field as the Parliament would probably reject any candidate with a significantly sceptic background.)

European Council agendas

The European Council of December 2013 gave Council President van Rompuy a final mandate for resolving the long-running topic of mutually agreed contracts for economic performance. Crucially the linkage with `solidarity mechanisms’ opens up many possibilities for a major re-shaping of the euro area economic system – or not.

Part III: November to December

New Council President

Article 15 of the TFEU provides for the European Council to elect its President by qualified majority for a term of two-and-a-half years, renewable once.  There are no Treaty-based criteria for this office, except that the President cannot simultaneously hold national office.  The new post holder will take office on 1 December 2014.

New Eurogroup President

It seems unlikely that the current President will stand again and the name of French Finance Minister Moscovici is already being canvassed, especially if Barnier does not become Commission President.