Carnegie Europe: What Russia’s War in Ukraine Means for Europe

08 March 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marks a turning point for the EU. When boosting its capabilities and resilience, Europe must not neglect engagement with the wider world.

On February 24, 2022, Europe’s wake-up call finally came. None of the past events that warranted this appellation—the wars in former Yugoslavia, 9/11, the Arab Spring, wars in Syria and Libya, the annexation of Crimea—provoked the remarkable historical shift that took place since Putin chose the path of a full-blown invasion of Ukraine.

In the escalation of the crisis, Europeans had been preparing for the announced “massive” sanctions package, which enabled the EU to respond with unexpected speed. Washington’s very public strategy of announcing the Kremlin’s plans for aggression could not be dismissed. For weeks, the United States has been declassifying non-disputable intelligence about the military buildup. Antony Blinken’s speech at the United Nations on February 17 was precisely worded to acknowledge past military action falsely justified by the United States. Sharing intelligence was part of a wider engagement with Europeans to urge them to take the threat of the military buildup very seriously.

Yet among European leaders, incredulity still dominated until they woke up on February 24. Had the Kremlin chosen to continue subverting Ukraine through hybrid, cyber, and military interventions in the Donbas region, Europe would not have considered such a historical turnaround of its deeply entrenched views of Russia.

Overnight, Putin squandered the extensive influence he had in Europe. How to deal with Russia had been the single most divisive issue for the EU at least since it enlarged to Central Europe and the Baltics in 2004. Strategic convergence around a shared risk assessment has been the most elusive aspiration of those pushing for a stronger EU in global politics. The invasion of Ukraine has finally put the member states on the same page.

The strategic shift will last beyond the pressing emergency of the war against Ukraine. It helped bridge a wide gap in trust between Central and Western Europe that has plagued any discussions about the EU’s role in security.

Germany’s three-party coalition government made a remarkable U-turn by announcing increased defense spending and ending energy dependence on Russia. In one go, each party dropped long-held ideological positions: the Social Democratic Party its historic Ostpolitik, the Greens their opposition to defense spending, and the liberal Free Democratic Party its opposition to public debt.

The list goes on. French President Emmanuel Macron is now even more likely to win the April presidential election while three of the other candidates are scrambling to justify their hitherto pro-Putin positions. The countries that had opposed opening the EU to refugees from Syria and Afghanistan are among those on the frontline welcoming refugees from Ukraine. Finland and Sweden may join NATO. Poland is mending fences with Brussels. The UK is cooperating with the EU.

In the EU, these strategic shifts are already being translated into policy, giving a new momentum to long-stalled good intentions in security and defense, with a revised Strategic Compass to be approved later in March, a few months ahead of NATO’s new Strategic Concept in June...

more at Carnegie


© Carnegie Europe