Der Spiegel: Annalena Baerbock Holds the Keys to Germany's Next Election
23 April 2021
A politician with the Green Party could become German chancellor for the first time. Annalena Baerbock is a far more dynamic candidate than her conservative and center-left competitors - and she could be poised for a senior position in the next government, if not the country's top political office.
With elections approaching in Germany this fall, one narrative that
we will frequently see on the campaign trail has already taken shape.
Two against one.
Two men against one woman.
Two 60(ish)-year-olds against a 40-year-old.
Two lawyers against a political scientist with a focus on
international law. Two governing professionals against a parliamentarian
with no executive experience. Two representatives from Germany's
traditional big-tent parties against the candidate of a party hoping to
become the next big-tent party.
It is astonishing how similar Armin Laschet, the chancellor candidate
from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and Olaf Scholz, who is
running for the Social Democrats (SPD), really are when you look
closely. Particularly when compared with the chancellor candidate from
the Green Party: Annalena Baerbock.
Two against one. Or: Old
against new. The question will be whether the old wins out once again.
Or whether the time is ripe for something new.
At first glance, there are a number of factors in Germany suggesting
that it is time to turn the page. Germany finds itself at a crossroads:
The pandemic has mixed everything up and many erstwhile certainties have
now been called into question. The old way of doing things did not
prove itself in this crisis.
In September, an unsettled, unnerved country will be going to the
polls. The pandemic could largely be under control by then, but the
climate crisis certainly won't be. And that crisis, too, will result in
significant upheavals.
And for the first time since 1949, the
chancellor will not be up for reelection. There will be no incumbent
bonus. The era of Angela Merkel is coming to an end and she is leaving
behind a fragmented conservative camp. The Union – the conservative
pairing of the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social
Union (CSU) – has held the reins of power in Germany since 2005. But the
Union's claim to the Chancellery is weaker now than it has been in
years.
It is a completely new situation for the country, and the outcome is
open. But it looks as though there is no getting around Annalena
Baerbock. The Greens, polls show, will almost certainly be part of
Germany's next government, but in what capacity? What role will voters
choose for Baerbock? That of chancellor? Or merely vice chancellor?
Can
we even imagine a Chancellor Baerbock? For many, she is still something
of an unknown, even if the Greens chose her as their candidate earlier
this week. Perhaps that's not a bad thing at this moment of German
history. Baerbock, in any case, has already promised to introduce a new
leadership style.
First, though, she must survive the crucible of the campaign and
defeat Laschet and Scholz if she wants to become the leader of a Green
republic. On the eve of the 2017 campaign, SPD candidate Martin Schulz
shot up in the polls and looked to be in prime position to challenge
Merkel's primacy before his candidacy crashed and burned, with Schulz
emerging from the election as a meaningless backbencher. There is hardly
a career challenge around that is more difficult than the one now
facing Baerbock.
Can she do it? What are her strengths and
weaknesses relative to her adversaries? What roles do the parties play
and what coalitions might emerge? Let's have a look....
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