Bloomberg: Brexit may have already triggered UK recession, Niesr says

22 July 2019

The UK’s planned exit from the European Union may have already pushed the UK into a technical recession, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

In a gloomy set of new forecasts, Niesr predicted that, even assuming a smooth exit in October, the nation will grow 1% in 2019 and 1% in 2020. There’s an around a one-in-four chance that the economy is already shrinking, the think tank said.

The outlook worsens if there is a no-deal Brexit, with Niesr seeing the possibility of a “severe” downturn in the event of a disorderly departure. Even if an “orderly” no deal exit is secured, Niesr says the economy will stagnate next year, with inflation accelerating to 4.1% as the pound drops about 10%. [...]

Full article on The Guardian

NIESR Press Release: Prospects for the UK economy - August 2019 Review

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