Markets retreat and rebound: BIS quarterly review

05 March 2019

Shifting macroeconomic prospects in major economies, and their implications for monetary policy, dominated market developments at the end of 2018 and in the early months of 2019.

Market commentary suggested that concerns that monetary policy would remain on a tightening course, despite a softening economic outlook, pushed US stock prices sharply lower in December. Investors grew increasingly uncertain of future corporate earnings growth. Financial markets found firmer footing in the new year after central banks reaffirmed that policy would respond to global economic risks.

Claudio Borio, Head of the BIS Monetary and Economic Department, commented: "Developments over the last couple of months conveyed a simple message. The very gradual and predictable monetary tightening process is on pause and has become less predictable, as inflation in advanced economies has shown few signs of flaring up, the prospects for economic activity have become more uncertain, and financial markets have turned out to be especially jittery. The narrow normalisation path is proving to be a winding one."

The March 2019 issue of the BIS Quarterly Review also:

Press release

Quarterly review

© BIS - Bank for International Settlements