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The real significance of both the European Constitutional Treaty and the document which succeeds it was and is less than either its most enthusiastic partisans or most vitriolic opponents have claimed, Brendan Donnelly, Director of the Federal Trust argues. It was and is a relatively small step in the process of the European Union’s institutional development, marking neither a major development in that process nor a substantial change of direction.
A relatively compressed ratification procedure, with only a very limited number of referendums appearing necessary, will have been a considerable attraction for many heads of government of the agreement they signed in Brussels last week.
If Mr. Brown remains determined to avoid a referendum on the “amending” treaty, he will probably be able to do so, although at some cost to his not unwelcome Eurosceptic reputation in certain parts of the British press. If the next British General Election is to be held in 2008 or 2009, then Mr. Brown will probably ratify the new treaty in the first half of 2008 by purely parliamentary procedures.