European Voice: No winners if UK heads to the exit

13 November 2014

Normally, a ‘Brexit’ is discussed only in terms of the damage it might inflict on British economic and political interests. Little is said about its potentially damaging impact on the EU and its future development.

This is partly a reflection of the resignation – laced with anger – in Brussels at the aggressive attitudes to Europe favoured by successive British governments, as well as the asinine and usually ill-informed British debates about whether or not to stay in the Union.

If there is an ‘in/out’ referendum in 2017 and if it goes against continued EU membership – both of which are far from certain – both sides will suffer considerable damage. The important trade relationship would eventually be reset, but as global players Britain would be politically marginalised and the EU would be diminished.

Within the EU, the political balance would swing even more definitively in the direction of Germany and northern European member states, with France seeking an end to its current limbo (perhaps at the head of a coalition of southern countries). Confronted by such grave possibilities, member states’ representatives, European commissioners and their officials in Brussels are heartily fed up with the UK. Where once the British were much appreciated for their pragmatic and rigorous approach to policy development and legislation, now they are regarded, in the words of one very senior official, as “toxic”.

Prime Minister David Cameron’s futile attempt to undermine the principle of free movement of people is seen as a display of political ignorance and folly that serves only to alienate his handful of supporters in the European Council. His opponents are united in the view that he has lost control of his Conservative Party and either lacks the skills to keep relations with partners on an even keel, or is determined to lead the UK out of the EU.

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