Graham Bishop's Blog: Juncker well on the way to Presidency but… not there yet!

18 June 2014

Today’s lunch between Italian Prime Minster Renzi and Council President van Rompuy will mark another major step towards the European Council’s nomination of Jean-Claude Juncker. However, there is a critical policy issue that must be resolved before he will get the support of the S&D Group in the EP.

The key is the difference in policy on public debt between the EPP Group and the Socialists – a group that includes 29 Italian members from Renzi’s party.  The S&D support for Juncker remains strictly conditional on “a more flexible interpretation of the Stability and Growth Pact." – code for more public debt. According to Paola Buonadonna’s story this morning (link), this is also a major requirement of PM Renzi.

But the EPP manifesto absolutely rejected taking on more public debt and, indeed, remains committed to a reduction in debt. Presumably Mr Juncker feels bound by the EPP manifesto that he championed in the election. If the two groups cannot build a `coalition agreement’ on this very fundamental policy disagreement, Mr Juncker could struggle to get the necessary 376 votes in the European Parliament. Financial markets will take a very keen interest in the outcome of this particular debate.

Graham Bishop - Consultant on EU Integration - Political, Financial, Economic, Budgetary

Rolling blog


© Graham Bishop