10 March 2019

The Independent: No majority support for Theresa May's deal in any constituency, poll analysis reveals

No majority of voters in any of the 632 constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales want their MP to back Theresa May's Brexit deal, according to a fresh polling analysis released just days before a major parliamentary vote.

The new constituency-by-constituency model based on YouGov polling for the People's Vote campaign of more than 25,000 voters presents grim reading for Downing Street ahead of Tuesday's "meaningful vote" on Ms May's Brexit agreement.

If "don't knows" are excluded from the polling, which was conducted in January, the results add that there is a majority support in just two constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales for the prime minister's deal. 

It suggests that even in Ms May's own parliamentary constituency of Maidenhead, voters are opposed to her deal passing in the Commons by 53 per cent to 47 per cent. 

The research also claims that if Labour fails to oppose Ms May's deal, the party could suffer at the next general election, with the Conservatives winning a 200-seat majority. 

But Jeremy Corbyn has already committed his party to opposing the prime minister's current deal. "We will not be supporting her deal next Tuesday," he said last week. 

"We will be voting to take no deal off the table and we will once again be putting our proposals - our five pillars - which are a customs union, market access and protection of rights in this country that have been obtained through the EU," he added.

Peter Kellner, the former president of the pollster YouGov, said: "The coalition that produced a narrow majority for Brexit three years ago is falling apart."

He continued: "It brought together traditionalists in Conservative Britain who saw the EU as a threat to British values and sovereignty, with families in Labour's heartlands who felt that 'Brussels' threatened their living standards and their children's job prospects.

"The prime minister's plan is unpopular essentially because few people in either group think it tackles the threat they face. 

"The fact that only two constituencies in the entire country (not including her own) want their MP to support her deal shows just how risky it would be for the prime minister to force this deal on the people now." [...]

Full results on The Independent

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