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03 March 2019

Business Insider: The City of London is finally starting to believe that the UK will avoid a no-deal Brexit


Analysts and economists in the City of London are starting to virtually rule out the prospect of the UK leaving the European Union without a deal after a week in which two crucial developments in British politics seemingly lessened the likelihood of no deal.

This week, analysts JPMorgan and Pantheon Macroeconomics both affirmed their belief that the chance of a no deal Brexit is around 10-15%, while Capital Economics said it believes the chances of no deal is "receding."

So what's happened to change the minds of the City's brightest minds, some of whom in recent months have forecast no-deal as the most likely of Brexit outcomes?

It effectively boils down to the fact that Prime Minister Theresa May was forced into a compromise that will give members of parliament the ability to both create a short delay to Brexit, and to rule out no deal in the short term.

May told MPs on Tuesday that should they reject her deal for a second time, they would be given a series of binding votes on whether to leave the EU without a deal or to delay Brexit.

"The UK will only leave without a deal on March 29 if there is explicit assent in the House for that outcome," May said in the House of Commons.

She added that if her deal were rejected for a second time, then MPs would be offered a vote on March 13 on leaving without a deal and then a vote on March 14 on whether to delay Brexit. [...]

Full article on Business Insider



© Business Insider


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