18 February 2019

POLITICO: Right wing set for big gains in European election

The poll, published Monday, shows all of Europe's mainstream, pro-EU political families losing seats — with the exception of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe.

Meanwhile, the Europe of Nations and Freedom group, anchored by Marine Le Pen's National Rally in France and Matteo Salvini's League in Italy, are projected to make sizable gains — picking up a total of 22 seats and bringing their overall presence in Parliament from 5 percent to 8 percent, according to the survey.

The Europe of Freedom and Democracy group could also make big gains if there are strong showings by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the 5Star Movement in Italy. The EFDD is projected to make a net gain of two seats despite losing its 17-member contingent of anti-EU British MEPs from the U.K. Independence Party (UKIP). However, the EFDD's future was cast into doubt last week when 5Star leader Luigi Di Maio announced the creation of a new group "of like-minded people” featuring parties from Croatia, Finland, Greece and Poland. The new gathering so far falls short of the number of MEPs and countries represented needed to form an official group.

The poll numbers, unveiled on Monday, deliver an alarming — if not entirely shocking — wake-up call to the mainstream, pro-EU politicians who have controlled power in Brussels for decades, but have seemed flummoxed in recent years about how to push back against a rising populist and nationalist tide.

Overall, the anti-EU groups will control more than 14 percent of Parliament — not enough yet to challenge the mainstream groups but potentially presenting a formidable obstacle in some legislative debates. The poll results also show that at least three parties will be required to form a majority coalition of pro-EU forces in the next Parliament, with the center right and center left no longer able to break the 50 percent threshold on their own.

The long-dominant, center-right European People's Party, while still remaining the biggest group, is projected to lose 34 seats, falling to 183 from 217, and bringing its total share of seats in the Parliament to 26 percent from 29 percent.

Projected losses are even more devastating for the mainstay center-left Socialists and Democrats. They are projected to fall to 135 seats from 186, bringing their share to 19 percent from 25 percent of the chamber. [...]

Full article on POLITICO

EP poll: First seat projections for the next European Parliament

Related article on LSE: Topic-modelling the 2019 European Parliament elections: The long awaited battle over the ‘soul of Europe’?

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