28 October 2013

Czech election leaves parliament fragmented

The Social Democrats have won a narrow victory in early parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic, but the composition of the next government is likely to depend on a billionaire who entered politics only two years ago.

Source: Election Resources on the Internet: Parliamentary Elections in the Czech Republic - Chamber of Deputies Results Lookup View

The Czech national elections were expected to produce a fragmented parliament with a likely swing to a weak, leftist coalition government, possibly reconstituted with Communists and offering little respite from years of political turbulence, reported the WSJ (subscription required). 

The centre-right government of Petr Necas was brought down by a corruption scandal in June. The country has been without a proper administration ever since - and is currently being governed by a caretaker cabinet of technocrats. Voters were expected to opt for some parties outside the mainstream and polls showed there may have been up to eight parties in the next Parliament versus five in its predecessor. 

The Social Democrats (ČSSD) had hoped to win enough votes to run the country with the support of the Communists - but neither had enough to succeed.  According to the BBC, analysts say the weekend's result could pave the way for another unstable coalition, with the second-placed Ano party ("ANO 2011-Akce nespokojených občanů" - "Yes 2011 – Action of Dissatisfied Citizens") in a powerful bargaining position, who were deemed the real winners of the elections. 

The Financial Times (subscription required) reports that Mr Babis, leader of the Ano party, a tycoon with an agribusiness and media empire, entered politics two years ago, saying he was disgusted with the corruption corroding the country’s mainstream parties. His well-funded campaign saw Mr Babis’s face and message plastered on billboards and posters across the country, and he struck a chord with disgruntled voters. "Basically, Andrej Babis holds the keys to the post-election situation", said Jiri Pehe, a Czech political analyst. "He is crucial to any attempt to form a government of either the left or the right."

Mr Babis himself appeared stunned by his party’s strong showing. On Saturday night he initially said he wanted to stay in the opposition, but has since backtracked, saying he was open to an initiative from Mr Sobotka as long as his party’s programme was respected. He ruled out a coalition with rightwing parties, which would have a 103-vote majority in the parliament, telling the Mlada fronta Dnes newspaper that "those parties are linked with corruption in the past, and therefore we cannot afford to co-operate with them".

The BBC reports that the leader of the Social Democrats has defied a call from his party leadership to resign following poor election results. Chairman Bohuslav Sobotka says he has no intention of stepping down, despite a resolution from the party leadership. The Social Democrats called on Mr Sobotka "to take direct personal and political responsibility" for his party's disappointing results, according to Czech media. Mr Sobotka rejected the call, saying he could only be dismissed by the party's central executive committee, which appointed him. "I will not resign because I want to keep defending values I believe in within the [party]", he said. Correspondents say this could further complicate efforts to create a new government.

Hannes Swoboda, president of the Socialists and Democrats Group in the European Parliament, said: "The ČSSD as the biggest party now has the right and obligation to form a government. After the recent years of failure to engage on a European level, we need a strong Czech government that is committed to making Europe a stronger, more socially just place. Therefore, a united party leadership is essential."

The Financial Times (subscription required) remarked that the defeat of the centre-right will mean a shift away from fiscal austerity, with either the caretaker government of premier Jiri Rusnok or any new coalition likely to pursue more pro-growth policies. OpenEurope points out that the fragmentation of the political spectrum (and the centre-right in particular) is hardly surprising, stemming from widespread disillusionment with the political class. 

European Voice (subscription required) lays out the different options for coalition formation.  The highly fragmented results, which gave seven parties seats in parliament, mean that the next government will need to include at least three parties. It now rests with President Miloš Zeman to decide whom to give the first chance to form a coalition.

Zeman has actively shaped Czech politics since taking office in March. This summer, he ignored the possibility of forming a majority government consisting of three parties and chose instead to create a caretaker government filled by technocrats. During the election campaign, Zeman said he would refuse a grand coalition between the Social Democrats and the centre-right parties that governed between mid-2010 and this May. 

Social Democrat leader Sobotka has already ruled out a government that includes the third-largest party, the Communists, who have remained unreformed since the Velvet Revolution, while Okamura has said that his populist-nationalist party will not enter government. Numerically, the strongest coalition – with an 11-seat majority – would include the Social Democrats, the Christian Democrats and ANO, which is a candidate to join the European Liberal Democrat and Reform Party at the EU level. ANO could form a three-seat majority with the Christian Democrats, and the two centre-right parties, TOP 09 and the Civic Democrats. 

---

See also:

• Commentary: Despite ‘winning’ the Czech parliamentary elections, the Czech Social Democrats have been firmly upstaged by Andrej Babiš for LSE
• The Konrad Adenauer Stiftung's briefing paper on the Czech elections (in German)