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05 October 2010

El País: Bank of Spain says government needs backup plan in case economic growth disappoints forecast


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Bank of Spain Governor, Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez, said economists largely agree that the government's forecast for a GDP increase of 1.3 percent in 2011 is too optimistic, with growth more likely to be about 0.6 percent.


He told a parliamentary panel the government should have alternative measures ready, such as cutting spending by regional and local governments.
As she presented a deficit-cutting 2011 draft budget to parliament last week, Finance Minister Elena Salgado said the government is confident in its forecasts. "There is no Plan B planned," she said Thursday, hours after Moody's joined two other credit rating agencies in stripping Spanish sovereign debt of its top-grade rating, citing weak growth prospects.
The 2011 budget foresees cutting the deficit from the expected 9.3 per cent of GDP this year to 6.0 per cent in 2011.
Fernandez Ordonez said that if the government forecasts turn out to be wrong, quick action will be needed to keep the deficit-reduction process on track.
"Having contingency plans designed far enough in advance will facilitate the success of such action," he said.
Spain's economy posted anemic growth in the first two quarters of this year, technically ending nearly two years of recession triggered by the collapse of its real estate sector.
The government forecasts the economy will contract by a total of 0.3 per cent in 2010, compared to a fall of 3.7 per cent in 2009.
 




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