Unfortunately for the prime minister, Brexit is far from done – and his party stands in his way of being able to move on, argues Jill Rutter
It was never clear whether the Johnson “Get Brexit Done” coalition that
delivered his majority in 2019 was more motivated by “Brexit” and the
benefits they expected to flow from it, or the “done” promise as a
nation wearied of three-and-a-half years of politics being dominated by
the B-word. The bad news for the prime minister is that, nearly three
years after the UK left the EU institutions and two years after
concluding the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, Brexit and its fall-out
is still very live.
In his brief time in office, Rishi Sunak has built on the improved mood
music with European leaders that was probably the most notable
achievement of Liz Truss’s brief tenure. His trip to COP27 was notable
for chummy chats with Ursula von der Leyen and Emmanuel Macron, and
later in the week he found time to be the first Conservative prime
minister to attend the British-Irish Council and make contact not just
with Nicola Sturgeon and (virtually) Mark Drakeford but also with the
Irish Taoiseach, Micheal Martin.
But what is unclear is whether these improved “vibes” abroad turn into concrete changes which can ease UK-EU tensions.
Northern Ireland secretary of state Chris Heaton-Harris pulled back
from his commitment to call early elections to Stormont, and will need
to legislate to get out of his legal duty to do so. He claimed that this
was to give the negotiations more time, and various EU voices are
suggesting that the two sides are close but with the added hint that the
gap can be closed if the UK just moves a bit more.
If this were just a technical chat about customs arrangements and
regulatory checks, there is undoubtedly a deal to be done. Quite where
the landing zone is would depend on levels of trust and the EU’s
tolerance for risk and view of the likelihood that the UK will
significantly diverge from EU standards over time. That is the sort of
deal a technocrat like Sunak would enjoy getting properly stuck into.
The problem is that his predecessor and his party have let the Protocol
debate escalate well beyond technicalities. The position that the UK
set out in the white paper in summer 2021 and the measures promised in
the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill are not tweaks to make the Protocol
work better but represent a wholesale ripping up and rewrite of the
rules.
With those promises on the table, it is far from clear the prime
minister has the latitude, even if he has the inclination, for settling
for the much, much less that is likely to be offer on from the EU.
Steve Baker warned that the ERG would be prepared to “implode” the
government over a sell-out. Mark Francois claimed that Sunak had
promised to ram the Protocol Bill through using the Parliament Act to
see off the Lords if necessary. The DUP are still impaled on their
maximalist demands.
It has always appeared that Sunak as chancellor – unlike some of his
then colleagues – wanted to avoid a trade showdown with the EU. It is
far less clear that he has the political strategy or clout within his
party to sell any compromise.
The Northern Ireland Protocol Bill is not the only inheritance from the
Johnson/Truss administrations. The Retained EU Law (Revocation and
Reform) Bill was the David Frost/Jacob Rees-Mogg answer to persuading
their fellow secretaries of state to bother with revising the swathe of
secondary legislation transferred into UK law through the 2018
Withdrawal Act.
The bill has come in for a lot of criticism, focussing mainly on the
idea that all ex-EU law would be caught by its “sunsets” at the end of
2023. This created uncertainty. It risked creating bad law in a hurry
with a lack of parliamentary scrutiny, wasting civil service and
ministerial time and resource and a massive ministerial power grab. The
devolved governments hate it as well. It risks complicating any solution
to the Northern Ireland Protocol – and potentially retaliation from the
EU if they think the UK is dropping standards.
But it is moving on. All the indications would suggest Sunak should
make yet another U-turn on this (he doubled down on it in the leadership
contest), not least because the government recently found an extra
1,400 EU laws down the back of the sofa – increasing the workload of
this already mammoth undertaking by over a third. His business secretary
has just announced yet another delay in a burdensome bit of divergence –
the introduction of the UKCA mark to replace the EU’s CE in order to
cut costs for business and remove potential disruption. But that would
again mean taking on those in the party who rowed in behind Liz Truss
and may blame him, not her, for her rapid downfall...
more at Institute for Government
© Institute for Government
Key
Hover over the blue highlighted
text to view the acronym meaning
Hover
over these icons for more information
Comments:
No Comments for this Article