08 March 2022

UKandEU's Curtice: Do voters’ perceptions of the consequences of Brexit matter?

Today’s poll asked a new set of questions designed to tap people’s perceptions of whether the UK is better or worse off as a result of being outside the EU. Hitherto, most polls that have addressed the issue have asked people what they think has been the impact of leaving the EU.

The latest poll from the UK in a Changing Europe/Redfield & Wilton Strategies Brexit Tracker finds that, after leaving aside ‘Don’t Know’s, 55% would vote to stay out of the EU and 45% to rejoin, figures that are only modestly different from the tallies of 52% Leave, 48% Remain that were recorded in the 2016 referendum.

But how do we account for the movement that has occurred in this poll? In particular, to what extent does it reflect people’s views on the consequences of now being outside the EU?

Today’s poll asked a new set of questions designed to tap people’s perceptions of whether the UK is better or worse off as a result of being outside the EU. Hitherto, most polls that have addressed the issue have asked people what they think has been the impact of leaving the EU. However, as Brexit gradually begins to fade from the rear-view mirror of our memories, this approach will increasingly come to appear dated. Some may not remember Brexit at all!

Over the longer term the question that will be pertinent is whether or not Britain feels it is better off outside the EU than it would be as part of the European club – and that is how respondents to today’s poll were invited to consider the issue.

The table below summarises the results. The details of the wording of each item varied – in the case of the economy, for example, the poll asked whether the economy is ‘stronger’ or ‘weaker’ as a result of being outside the EU, while in the case of the UK’s influence in the world, it asked whether the country now had ‘more’ or ‘less influence’.

To simplify matters, we have put all the positive evaluations, however worded, in a column headed ‘more/better’ and all the negative ones in a column labelled ‘less/worse’. In the far right hand column we show the proportion giving a positive response minus those expressing a negative one.

Table: Perceptions of the Consequences of Being Outside the EU

 

	More/Better	Same/Similar	Less/Worse	More/Better minus Less/Worse
	%	%	%
Vaccination programme	49	27	13	+36
Control own affairs	39	41	28	+11
Pandemic response	31	30	28	+3
EU immigration	28	28	25	+3
Non-EU immigration	19	32	28	-9
Wages	11	41	31	-20
Influence in world	17	27	44	-27
Economy	19	20	48	-29
NHS	11	37	43	-32
Sell goods abroad	11	17	46	-35
Cost of living	9	17	66	-57

Note: In the case of the items on immigration and cost of living, the response, ‘higher’ has been interpreted as ‘worse’, and ‘lower’ as ‘better’

There is a considerable variation in the balance of evaluations. While nearly half say that the UK’s Covid-19 vaccination programme has been better as a result of being outside the EU – a claim that has often been made by the UK government – two-thirds (66%) believe that the cost of living has been increasing as a result of not being a member, while under one in ten (9%) say that it has been lower. That said, those expressing a negative view outnumber those giving a positive response on seven of the eleven items in the table, suggesting that, on balance, the consequences of Brexit are viewed relatively unfavourably.

These figures make it surprising that the poll also suggests that somewhat more people would now vote to stay out of the EU than backed Leave in 2016.

To unravel this web further, we can undertake some statistical modelling which identifies which of the perceptions reported in the table are most closely associated with people expressing a different view now about EU membership from the one they supported in June 2016. This modelling reveals that two evaluations are particularly and independently associated with people expressing a different view – the perceived impact of being outside the EU on the UK’s influence in the world and on the country’s economy....

more at  UKandEU

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