Differentiated integration has been and will remain a necessity if Europe wants to overcome stalemate and improve the functioning of the European integration process.
The central question is thus not
whether there will be a differentiated Europe, but what it will or
rather should look like. This paper develops and evaluates five
potential scenarios for a “differentiated EUrope 2035”: (1) status quo
differentiation; (2) muddling upwards; (3) fundamental disruption of
differentiation; (4) creation of an inner core; and (5) a new
supranational union.
It explores the potential
challenges/opportunities of the various forms of differentiation by
analysing how the scenarios might lead to high(er) or low(er) levels of
effectiveness and legitimacy/democratic accountability.
Without
trying to predict the future, the paper identifies key factors
determining the future of a “differentiated EUrope” and comes to the
conclusion that the EU and its members are likely to prefer the
“muddling upwards” scenario rather than more radical forms of
differentiation. However, future crises might force Europe in another
direction, compelling governments to depart from business as usual.
This paper was first published here, as part of the EU IDEA project.
Its central goal is to address whether, how much and what form of
differentiation is not only compatible with, but is also conducive to a
more effective, cohesive and democratic EU.
Read the full paper here.
EPC
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