Boris Johnson has admitted there is a slim chance that Britain will not conclude a trade deal with the EU before his self-imposed December 2020 deadline, pronouncing that it was “epically likely” it would happen.
Mr Johnson said during the December election campaign that the chance of no deal being concluded were “absolutely zero”, but in his first major media interview of the year he appeared to concede for the first time that he had some doubts.
His comments are likely to cause concern in the business community, which fears that if no deal is in place then Britain will have to start trading with the EU on WTO terms in January 2021, with tariffs, paperwork and delays at ports.
The Conservative manifesto excluded any extension to the standstill transition period, which is due to expire at the end of this year, and Mr Johnson repeated that point last week in a meeting with Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president.
In his interview with BBC Breakfast, the prime minister said it was “very, very, very likely” a deal would be done, but accepted that “you always have to budget for a complete failure of common sense”.
Ms von der Leyen has warned that the prospect of concluding a comprehensive deal with Britain in just 11 months after Brexit on January 31 is highly unlikely and that both sides should consider the need for a longer transition period.
In the absence of any extension, she told Mr Johnson that the EU would “prioritise” — suggesting that Brussels might propose a “bare bones” trade deal covering tariffs and quotas on goods and building on that in future.
On Tuesday Ms von der Leyen said Britain’s market access would depend on its willingness to abide by EU rules. “It is the choice of the UK how far they want to align or diverge,” Ms von der Leyen told MEPs. “It’s the old proverb, you cannot have the cake and eat it at the same time.” [...]
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