12 December 2019

LSE: High hopes, long odds - On the false promises of Brexiteer deals with the EU and US

This report explores a No-Deal Brexit which would leave the UK economically, politically and diplomatically weakened and isolated. It further examines the relationships with its two main allies - the European Union and the United States - which would become more difficult and complicated.

The political fallout associated with the economic hit of no deal—or any form of harder Brexit—should not be underestimated. Yet the UK government’s ignorance of the complexity of the Irish border issues could create a no-deal crisis with vast political and economic ramifications. A no-deal Brexit would mean a hard border across the island of Ireland, and the ensuing economic and political upheaval could lead to calls for Northern Ireland to quit the UK altogether to unify with the Republic of Ireland. The Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland states that the UK’s Northern Ireland secretary must enable a border poll if at any time it appears likely that the majority of voters would express a desire to form part of a united Ireland. With this in mind—the disintegration of the United Kingdom—the consequences of a no-deal Brexit would be stark. If the UK languishes without a deal with both the EU and the US, it may see Northern Ireland and Scotland leaving the UK The Brexit process has revealed the weaknesses of Westminster’s insular politics. At every turn, it has seemed incapable of running a modern economy and society. And as time has passed, the dysfunction has only grown. While the election on 12 December hopes to deliver a majority that might resolve and move past this protracted Brexit morass, it also threatens to yield an equally divided parliament, further complicating the Brexit conundrum.

Full report

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