15 December 2019

The Guardian: Johnson is warned his big win will not speed up Brexit deal

The prime minister has made clear that he will immediately push on with plans to implement his Brexit deal, ensuring that Britain will leave the EU by the end of January.

However, he is already being warned that his 80-strong majority will not hand him any extra power in his negotiations with Brussels. There are concerns in Europe and Westminster that his commitment not to extend the Brexit transition period beyond 2020 also risks exposing critical parts of Britain’s economy.

Sir Ivan Rogers, Britain’s former envoy to the EU, told the Observer that the time pressures created by Johnson’s commitments could force Britain into accepting major concessions. He also doubted that the size of the parliamentary majority would change the debate with Brussels.

“People always think that, but this is the category error that we always make,” he said. “That somehow the strength of your mandate and majority at home makes the slightest difference to how the other side negotiates.

“It’s not totally a repeat game, but it’s essentially the same methodology as 2017, and [the EU] almost certainly think they have the UK somewhat over a barrel, given the prime minister’s self-imposed very tight time pressure in saying he will under no circumstances extend the transition.”

Rogers added that Johnson had not resolved a central contradiction in his plans – that he appeared to want Britain to diverge from EU rules, while also wanting a comprehensive trade deal in place in just a year’s time.

“It’s because you say you have no intention of remaining aligned that the negotiation will take the time,” he said. “What exactly is the point of Johnson’s Brexit as opposed to [Theresa] May’s if he is actually saying that he wishes to remain aligned? The endless ambiguity and telling all sides what they want to hear ends when you start negotiating. See what he does, not what he says.”

The new president of the European commission, Ursula von der Leyen, conceded on Friday that negotiating a future relationship in such a tight time frame would be “very challenging”. She said the negotiations would instead have to prioritise key EU issues, such as the trade in goods and fisheries, and leave others for after 2020.

That could leave arrangements for the UK’s financial services sector and the landing rights of British air carriers out of an initial deal. Such a staged approach would be unwelcome in Downing Street and would, in itself, be difficult to complete.

Brussels is already grappling with the problem posed by Johnson’s position and the short time-frame. The Observer has learned that EU leaders could yet take the initiative and request an extension to the Brexit transition period from the UK.

It is understood initial discussions have taken place in Brussels about the EU taking the initiative and asking for its own extension from the British government. It is likely that the bloc would also need to sweeten the offer of an extension by minimising the costs the UK would face. Sources suggest that such a move might offer Johnson a better chance of gaining cabinet approval, and avoid a cliff-edge exit from the EU’s structures next 31 December, including the imposition of tariffs. [...]

Full article on The Guardian

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