15 October 2019

Financial Times: No-deal Brexit could cut UK-EU trade flows by half

The flow of goods across the UK-EU border could be cut by more than half in the event of a no-deal Brexit on October 31, according to the most up-to-date assessment by Whitehall’s efficiency watchdog.

In what it calls a “reasonable worst-case planning assumption”, the National Audit Office said cross-border shipments could initially be reduced to as much as 45 per cent of normal levels on day one and could take up to 12 months to flow normally if the UK leaves the bloc without a deal.

In a report published on Wednesday, the NAO said its assessment was based on the prediction that only 30 per cent to 60 per cent of hauliers travelling to the EU would have appropriate documentation after a no-deal Brexit.

The NAO said that despite the government’s most recent efforts, much of the essential work needed to maintain flows across the UK-EU border — especially the Dover-Calais strait — were not in place.

It said government would not have time ahead of 31 October to ensure it had all the infrastructure and staff needed to help reduce queues on lorries as they approach the Channel ports by introducing mandatory readiness checks to identify and divert hauliers who are not ready for French customs.

It also found that by the start of this month, only 25,000 of the 150,000 to 250,000 traders that may need to make a customs declaration on day one of a no-deal Brexit had registered with the government’s “Transitional Simplified Procedures” scheme. This is designed to allow registered businesses to delay submitting customs declarations and paying of customs duties on imports from the EU to the UK. [...]

Full article on Financial Times (subscription required)

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