The most likely outcome at the EU Parliament vote is also the one which Britons expect would make the biggest difference
A majority of Britons (55%) believe that the Brexit Party performing well on 23 May would have a great/moderate impact on the Brexit process. With YouGov’s latest poll showing the Brexit Party on 35% of the vote and with a 19 percentage point lead over second-the placed Lib Dems, this outcome currently seems the most likely.
Should the anti-Brexit parties (Lib Dems, Greens and Change UK) perform well, 44% of Brits (the second highest figure) expect this to have a great/moderate impact on the Brexit process.
Britons are less likely to believe that a good performance by the Conservatives (38%) or Labour (34%) would have such a noticeable impact.
Britons are also about as likely to think that a bad performance by the Conservatives will have a great/moderate impact as a good one, at 36%. A bad haul for the Conservatives is also seen as more likely to have an impact on the Brexit process than a bad night for any of the other players: 30% say the same for the Brexit Party and 25% do for both Labour and the anti-Brexit parties.
Noticeably, while Leave voters are substantially more likely than Remain voters to think a Brexit Party victory would have a great/moderate impact on the Brexit process (68% versus 50%), all other outcomes they are less likely to see as a big deal, regardless of the scenario.
Full article on YouGov
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