21 September 2017

Business Insider: Brexit could be the unlikely trigger of the next financial crisis, warns Deutsche Bank

The report examined events and issues that could trigger a crisis, including the unwinding of the ultra-loose central bank policy that has characterised the post-crisis years, a crisis in China, and issues in the Italian political and economic landscape which could harm the wider EU.

Brexit, the issue that completely dominates virtually all discourse — both political and economic — in the UK is deemed a lesser examined risk.

While it isn't likely that Brexit will go so wrong that it triggers a new crisis, Jim Reid and his team said, neither was the Second World War, and there are some similarities between these two scenarios. [...]

Investors expect a deal to be struck — just as nearly all of those in the British and EU establishment thought that Brexit wouldn't happen at all.

A chance remains, however, that negotiations break down completely, Reid's team said.

"The real financial crisis could arise if the UK experiences a dramatic ‘hard’ Brexit with relations completely breaking down with the EU. This would not only have economic implications for the UK and the EU but also on geopolitics."

"The UK’s vote to leave has introduced a major risk to economic activity, the financial architecture of Europe and perhaps more concerning, the geo-politics and security of the region. As such we need to continue to keep this on our radar," they add, noting how key to the financial architecture of the whole bloc the City of London is.

"Although worst case scenario planning is under way for many of the major players, it would be naïve to imagine that all eventualities could be planned for in such a short space of time. At worst this could have major impacts on funding to both companies and banks and on market liquidity."  [...]

Full article on Business Insider

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