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22 November 2016

The Telegraph: Donald Trump's abandonment of TPP free trade deal may hand economic power to China


Donald Trump’s pledge to pull out of the planned Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a free trade deal with 12 nations on both sides of the Atlantic, could give China more power in determining the future of the global economy, analysts believe.

The President-elect said that on “day one” in office he will issue a “notification of intent to withdraw from the TPP, a potential disaster for our country”.

The deal, which excludes China, has been in the works for almost a decade and was agreed earlier this year - but still needs ratification by each country’s parliament so it has not yet come into force.

The effect of the US’s withdrawal could be to boost the prospects of the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a rival to the TPP.

Australia’s government has already said that it will look to that deal as the best alternative to TPP, and Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe confirmed that TPP is dead without the USA’s participation.

“TPP is meaningless without the United States,” said Mr Abe on a visit to Argentina.

As a result the countries which are keen to reduce barriers to trade are expected to look to other powers such as China, which

TPP had been seen as an attempt by the US to maintain some of its economic authority globally by taking the lead on a powerful trade deal which would benefit Asian nations - something which President-elect Trump has dismissed as bad for American jobs.

“This appears to officially mark the US stepping back from a global economic leadership role, following the path of the UK (among others) before them,” said Michael Every, Rabobank’s head of financial markets.

“That’s perhaps true in a multilateral sense, and especially in the Asia-Pacific region; however, we could still see Trumpism being copied globally, especially if it actually gets economic results. Even so, that would still look far more likely to happen in the West than the East.”

Mr Trump said that instead of negotiating big free trade agreements, “we will negotiate fair, bilateral trade deals that bring jobs and industry back onto American shores”.

Full article on The Telegraph



© The Telegraph


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