03 April 2014

Political outsider Andrej Kiska is the new Slovak president

The independent candidate Andrej Kiska has won the second round of Slovakia's presidential elections. Daniel Kral (LSE) analyses why the outgoing Fico was defeated and that Kiska will find it difficult to exert real power given his lack of support in parliament. (Includes comment by Van Rompuy.)

Herman Van Rompuy, President of the European Council, congratulates Andrej Kiska on his election as President of the Slovak Republic:

"On behalf of the European Union, I would like to convey my congratulations to Andrej Kiska on his election as the new President of the Republic of Slovakia. I am convinced that Mr Kiska will contribute to carrying his country forward through challenges ahead and towards our common European objectives. I wish him all the success in his new position.

I would equally like to express my sincere appreciation for outgoing President Ivan Gašparovič for his role as head of state during the last ten years, seeing his country through its accession to the European Union and its adhesion to the euro currency."

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Analysis by Daniel Kral for LSE:

On 15 and 29 March, Slovaks elected their new president in two rounds of voting. The final run-off between the country’s prime minister, Robert Fico, and an independent businessman and philanthropist, Andrej Kiska, ended with a spectacular victory for the latter. Ultimately, Fico’s mantra of a politically stable Slovakia proved much less effective at mobilising support than the fear of his party, Smer-SD, dominating the country’s politics. Smer-SD currently forms Slovakia’s first one-party government since 1989, following overwhelming success at the 2012 Slovakian parliamentary elections.

With almost 60 per cent of the vote, Kiska not only won, but completely crushed his opponent. Fico either failed to mobilise his supporters or deter the electorate from backing Kiska, with voters, perhaps put off by the prime minister’s confrontational rhetoric, choosing to side with the apparent ‘victim’ – or, perhaps, preferring to see Fico remain in an executive position (prime minister) with much greater impact on policy.

Looking ahead

In light of his spectacular defeat by an outsider, some opposition MPs have called on Fico to give up his post of prime minister. Although such a move is not expected, the government may undergo a restructuring, with the Minister of Culture who headed Fico’s campaign, Marek Maďarič, having already offered his resignation. Nevertheless, the likely fate ahead for the prime minister is that of the once mighty movers of Slovak politics – Vladimír Mečiar or Mikuláš Dzurinda – who sooner or later fell into obscurity. And after reaching its peak in the 2012 general election, Fico’s party, Smer-SD, is set to decline with him.

Kiska, who will be inaugurated as the new Slovak president in June, has promised to unite Slovakia’s citizens, as well as to make politics 'more human'. While these are indeed noble goals, the situation he finds himself in is rather unfavourable. Despite having a stronger democratic mandate than the incumbent president Ivan Gašparovič enjoyed in both of his terms, Kiska’s lack of support in parliament and the large potential for conflict with the ruling party spell out uncertain times ahead. Whether Slovakia’s political environment will become more turbulent, and who, in political terms, Slovaks have really elected as their president, thus remain to be seen.

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