20 June 2013

German election update: Possible majority for present coalition in September

In the latest poll, the current government coalition of CDU/CSU and the liberal FDP have, for the first time in months, a majority over a possible SPD/Left Party/Greens coalition. The SPD is down to only 22 per cent of the votes.

Translated from the German

For months, the polls predicting the outcome of the German government elections in September have shown inconclusive results. As the Spiegel regularly reports, for months the CDU has been getting around 40 per cent of the votes, the SPD around 24 per cent and the FDP had to count themselves lucky to get past the 5 per cent parlimentary entry threshold.

Even though in the latest polls, published on Wednesday, the Greens jumped up to 15 per cent, the result of the SPD was back down to 22 per cent. The CDU would still get their 40 per cent and the FDP would be able to secure 6 per cent of the votes, according to the latest Forsa survey. This would give the current coalition a majority by one percentage point - 46 per cent - over the only possible complete alternative, a coalition of the SPD, the Left Party (around 8 per cent) and the Green Party, who would together amass only 45 per cent of the votes.

As the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reports, if the parliamentary elections were to take place next Sunday, only 22 per cent said they would give their vote to the Social Democrats, which is both a decrease of two percentage points and, for the second time this year, their annual low.

Thus, the chances of the CDU and FDP continuing their coalition are improving. The weakness of the SPD on the other hand is also reflected in the question of whom the Germans would like to have as Chancellor. If they could elect their head of government directly, 58 per cent would vote for Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU), one percentage point more than the previous week. Only 18 per cent prefer SPD candidate for chancellor Peer Steinbrück who lost two per cent of support this week. 

"People have the impression that the candidate and his party do not form a unit", said Forsa chief Manfred Güllner. It also hadn't helped the confindence in party that the shadow cabinet put together by Peer Steinbrück was made up of people mostly unknown to the general public. 

As reported by the Spiegel, the annual low of 22 per cent for the SPD goes below even the weak general election result from 2009. Furthermore, the survey data had been collected between 10 and 14 June - and could therefore not yet take into account the escalation of the on-going tensions between candidate for chancellor, Peer Steinbrück, and party leader Sigmar Gabriel over the weekend. Peer Steinbrück said in a Spiegel interview that he would have expected more support and loyalty from his party colleague. 

Both the Pirate Party and the anti-euro party "Alternative für Deutschland" can count on about 2 per cent of the votes and would, with such a result, fail to enter the Bundestag.