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29 January 2013

グラハム・ビショップ:キャメロン首相の勝負は歴史的となるのか?キャメロン首相は勝者か、それとも英国を保守党と共に大惨事に巻き込むのか、もしくは忘却の彼方へと追いやるのか 


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The long-awaited Cameron speech was finally uttered and contains huge implications for both Britain and Europe.


The Leader of the Conservative Party has put his Party interest first, and may find it very difficult to deliver a new relationship with Europe that satisfies the Eurosceptics, plunging the Tory party into bitter infighting. Will the unfolding policy shambles frighten off foreign investors into the UK – both employers of British workers and investors in the `UK sovereign debt fund’?

The weakness of sterling that coincided with the speech underscores the deep-seated problems of the uncompetitive nature of the UK economy. These risks may be highlighted brutally by industrial and financial investors as they review the potential impact of a major disengagement from the EU’s Single Market. The legacy of the massive foreign debts that financed Britain’s consumption in recent years remains the Achilles’ heel – as it has been for decades.

The UK budget deficit (as a % of GDP) in 2014 is set to be three times that of the euro area – bigger than Spain, Ireland or Greece; three times Italy or Portugal.

The UK economy is not as 'open' as many in the EU and has failed to benefit as much from the Single Market as they have in the two decades of its existence.

The euro area states are taking strong steps to improve their competiveness - already showing up as a greater re-balancing of their trade with the 'non-EU' at a significantly faster pace than the UK’s. This may be an early foretaste of the impact of their 'Thatcher'-style reforms on UK trade in Europe, and as global competitors.

Remarkably, the UK’s current account deficit (as a % of GDP) in 2014 may exceed the level before the massive devaluation of 2007/8 (the third largest devaluation in a century).

Capital investment rates in the UK have lagged behind those of the EU for two decades, and UK companies are stepping up their outward investment.

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© Graham Bishop


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