14 January 2013

Peter Kellner: Britain, Europe and the fear factor

Public opinion is on the move on Europe. YouGov's latest poll for the Sunday Times confirms that if David Cameron called a straight in-out referendum some time in the future, Britain would vote to remain a member of the European Union, probably by a large margin.

As recently as last May, a majority of almost two-to-one wanted Britain out of the EU. 51 per cent said they would vote to leave, while just 28 per cent want to stay in. Immediately after the new year, the margin was narrower but still large: 46 per cent said leave while 31 per cent said stay. Now the gap has narrowed to just six points: 42 per cent leave, 36 per cent stay.

That is what people say when asked how they would vote in a referendum held today. However, if a referendum is held, it is likely to be in some years’ time, with David Cameron claiming to have protected Britain’s interests. When YouGov asked people last July how they would vote in these circumstances, they found that 42 per cent would vote to remain in the EU while 34 per cent would vote to leave. Today, the results are far more emphatic. The margin for staying in the EU is exactly two-to-one: 50-25 per cent. The proportion of Tory voters who would vote to remain in the EU almost doubles, from 33 per cent when asked the standard referendum-today question, to 64 per cent when asked the conditional future-referendum question.

These results bear an uncanny resemblance to what happened at the previous referendum on Europe, in 1975. Eight months beforehand, most voters said they wanted Britain to withdraw from the Common Market (as it then was). Then Harold Wilson, Labour’s Prime Minister, did a deal that he claimed (with not a little exaggeration) amounted to a substantial improvement in Britain’s relations with Brussels. On this basis, he recommended staying ‘in Europe’, and secured a two-to-one majority in the referendum.

Now, as then, the shift in opinion seems to flow in large measure from a change in the way the issue is framed. Until recently, discussion of Europe has been dominated by complaints that the EU strips Britain of its independence and generally messes things up. Far less attention has been paid to the consequences of withdrawal. But in recent days, business leaders and, now, President Obama’s administration, have warned that British jobs and influence would diminish were we outside the EU...

Great care should be taken by politicians contemplating the merits of holding a referendum. For Cameron it might look at first like a no-brainer. The Conservatives have been losing votes to UKIP. He must win them back if he is to secure a majority at the next election. By promising a referendum, he would hope to do just that.

Perhaps he will. I am pretty sure that if the Prime Minister makes a firm and unambiguous commitment to a referendum when he delivers his long-awaited speech on Britain and the EU, the Tories will secure an immediate improvement in their poll rating. What is not so clear is whether it will last...

The temptation for Cameron to offer a referendum is undoubtedly huge. He badly needs to undermine UKIP’s appeal. But he may find that the best way to do this is not to compete with UKIPs Nigel Farage on who hates Brussels more. That is a contest Cameron can never win. Rather, he must tackle the underlying causes of discontent among centre and moderately right-of-centre voters. That means improving his government’s reputation for running the economy, taxing people fairly and providing decent public services – and reassuring people that he can provide good jobs, good schools and good hospitals into the future.

In my judgement (though, admittedly, others will draw different conclusions from the same polling data), he cannot afford to appear obsessed by any subject that distracts him from addressing the issues that really matter to voters. He needs to close down the question of Britain’s future in Europe, or at least prevent it from dominating our politics for the next few years. Were he to commit to a referendum he would unleash years of uncertainty about Britain’s future place in the world. And that could undermine the very reassurance, and reputation for moderation, that will be central to the Tories’ prospects of victory in 2015.

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Sunday Times survey results © The Times

© YouGov plc