The German state of Lower Saxony will soon hold elections, a vote that could set an uncomfortable precedent for Angela Merkel as she prepares for the country's general election in September.
Opinion polls suggest there is a good chance that the chancellor’s popular Christian Democratic Union will be swept out of government in Lower Saxony – thanks to the chronic weakness of its coalition partner, the centre-right Free Democrats. Polling between 2 and 4 per cent nationally after getting 15 per cent in the 2009 general election, the FDP is threatening its ally’s grip on power even as the CDU is polling 41 to 42 per cent, a five-year high.
Were the FDP to scrape into the Bundestag, with some 5 per cent, it could still fail to deliver enough seats to keep Merkel in power, but hold just enough to form a majority with Social Democrats and Greens.
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