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26 May 2016

Brexit 'Weekly'


HM Treasury analysis on immediate effects of Brexit, UK financial services, ECB, the European Deposit Insurance Scheme, Corporate tax avoidance, VAT, Greece, country-specific recommendations and more.

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  Articles from 19 May 2016 - 26 May 2016

  Grahams Articles, Comments & Speeches
 
 
120th Brussels for Breakfast/12th Brussels for Brunch: A month to the Brexit Referendum
With the Referendum imminent, this blog covers some of the main Brexit topics discussed, as well as summarising key regulatory events since the last Brussels for Breakfast.  View Article
 
  Political
 
 
HM Treasury analysis: the immediate economic impact of leaving the EU
The central conclusion of the analysis is that the effect of this profound shock would be to push the UK into recession and lead to a sharp rise in unemployment.  View Article
Lord Hill: "UK financial services: better off in the EU and the Single Market"
Commissioner Hill gave a speech at the London School of Economics in which he explained how the benefits of membership of the EU and the Single Market have been significant for British business and the British economy.   View Article
David Cameron and George Osborne: Brexit would put our economy in serious danger
British PM and Chancellor join forces in The Telegraph to ask readers for a vote to remain in the European Union on the June 23 referendum on EU membership, saying that "a vote to Leave is a vote for DIY recession."  View Article
ComRes EU referendum poll: Remain stays ahead while economy jumps in importance
52% of the respondents say they would vote for Remain, compared to 41% who say they would vote Leave. The proportion of Britons saying that the economy is one of the three most important factors influencing their decision on how to vote has increased 17 points since February, up to 55%.  View Article
IFS: Brexit could add two years to austerity
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned that in the short-term up to £40 billion in spending cuts or tax rises would be needed if Britain leaves Europe. UK's economy would be likely to face a hit between 2.1% and 3.5% in 2019.  View Article
Financial Times: Brexit fear hits foreign direct investment
Investors’ perceptions of the UK have become markedly gloomier over the past 12 months, driven by fears over a potential British exit from the EU and by concerns over high property prices and deteriorating infrastructure.  View Article
CEPS: A last testament
Michael Emerson writes that the 'Brexit' question has been thoroughly studied and aired in all its dimensions, so much so that it suffices in this commentary to try and distil what we have learned.  View Article
Financial Times: Brexit can only damage UK’s financial colossus
The City of London will be diminished if the country leaves the EU, in the FT's view.  View Article
SUERF: Ten Myths in the Brexit Debate
The purpose in this paper is to emphasise the uncertainties and offer a critical analysis of some of the claims made in the debate over UK's EU referendum.  View Article
Financial Times: BoE’s Vlieghe calls for Brexit rate cuts
The Bank of England should be ready to cut interest rates to stimulate spending if any economic bounce after a Remain vote in the EU referendum is disappointing, according to a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.  View Article
Project Syndicate: Brexit and New Europe
From the perspective of CEE countries, the central question of the British referendum in June is not whether or not the UK stays in the EU, but how the future of the union will be shaped by the decision.  View Article
 
  Financial
 
 
Bruegel: The European Deposit Insurance Scheme
Statement prepared by Guntram B. Wolff for the European Parliament’s ECON Committee Public Hearing.  View Article
Financial Times: ECB to demand data on 100m eurozone business loans
The European Central Bank will demand data on about 100m loans from across the single currency area as it attempts to safeguard financial stability and ensure the effects of its monetary policy are felt across the region.  View Article
 
  Economic
 
 
Corporate tax avoidance: Council adopts rules on the exchange of tax-related information on multinationals
The directive is the first element of a January 2016 package of Commission proposals to strengthen rules against corporate tax avoidance. It builds on 2015 OECD recommendations to address tax base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS).   View Article
Anti-tax avoidance: close tax gap with low-tax third countries, say MEPs
The European Commission's proposal for an EU anti-tax avoidance directive was welcomed by Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. MEPs nonetheless advocated stricter limits on deductions for interest payments and an effective corporate tax rate of 15%.  View Article
EBF: Comment letter on the proposed Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive
The EBF has published its comment letter to the EC on the proposed Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive. The purpose of the present letter is to set out common concerns of EBF´s organizations regarding the Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive.  View Article
Council conclusions on an external taxation strategy and measures against tax treaty abuse
The conclusions relate to two elements of the package: a communication on an external strategy for effective taxation; and a recommendation on the implementation of OECD measures against tax treaty abuse.  View Article
Council conclusions on the VAT action plan and on VAT fraud
The Council adopted conclusions on urgent measures to fight VAT fraud and tackle the VAT gap; on short and medium-term actions in VAT area and SMEs; on the definitive VAT system (single EU VAT area); and on VAT rates.  View Article
Council conclusions on macroeconomic imbalances and on implementation of country-specific recommendations
The Council adopted conclusions on in-depth reviews by the Commission of macroeconomic imbalances in 19 member states and the implementation of its 2015 country-specific recommendations on economic and fiscal policies under the “European Semester”.  View Article
Reuters: With ECB powers limited, Europe needs more integration - policymakers
The European Union needs more growth to restore people's confidence but monetary policy is nearing its limits so more integration is needed, top European central bankers said.  View Article
Conclusions of the 45th meeting of the European Economic Area Council
The Ministers discussed the migratory and refugee crisis, Russia and Ukraine, the EU Global Strategy on foreign and security policy, including cooperation in the Arctic. An orientation debate was held on the state of play of the Better Regulation agenda and its impact on the EEA.  View Article
Eurogroup statement on Greece
A full staff-level agreement has been reached between Greece and the institutions, as well as an agreement on the contingency fiscal mechanism which provides further reassurances that Greece will meet the primary surplus targets of the ESM programme.  View Article
Bruegel: Sovereign bond holdings in the euro area – the impact of QE
Authors look at the effect of QE on sectoral holdings of government bonds, based on their recently updated dataset.  View Article
 

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