A major repositioning of US foreign policy under Trump could lead to a rise in uncertainty and instability across Europe, while his victory itself could increase the likelihood of further blows to the status quo in the upcoming Italian referendum and French and German elections.
[...] The day that America’s European allies hoped would never come is here. The elevation of Trump to the position of President-elect has made the world a less stable and more uncertain place. Until the full implications of his victory are absorbed and Republican foreign policy strategists codify US foreign policy, à la Trump, his election is likely to spark a series of crises around the globe.
Europe is already dealing with the deep uncertainty generated by the Brexit vote in the UK. The EU economy is not showing signs of improvement and many Eurozone countries are suffering under austerity. It is in this climate that the Italian referendum next month and the French and German elections in 2017 will take place. Trump will cast a shadow over these electoral contests. He has shown that unrestrained rhetoric, narcissism and attacks on the weakest sections of society can be the most profitable electioneering tools.
The concern is that his victory may legitimise such tactics. Furthermore, such a political strategy indicates that, to many voters, narrow horizons, isolationism and protectionism are preferable to altruism, compassion and open-mindedness. Let us be under no illusions here, Trump’s victory is a triumph over social inclusion and economic and political liberalism – it is the revenge of a languishing petit-bourgeoisie over the educated middle and upper middle classes.
European stability is likely to be tested by Trump’s attitude toward NATO, a military alliance that only last summer, he described as ‘obsolete’. From today, European NATO allies would be wise to accept that the future of the alliance will be in a state of flux. It is not so much that Trump will not wish to continue US engagement with NATO, but rather, as he put it: ‘You can’t forget the bills… They have an obligation to make payments. Many NATO nations are not making payments, are not making what they’re supposed to make’.
Under President Trump the Europeans will have to pay their full due, around 2% of GDP, for American protection. If they do not want to undermine NATO, they had better start reviewing their defence budgets as soon as possible and step up their commitments. [...]
President Putin appears to be one of the few leaders genuinely pleased with the result of the American presidential election and he has declared his willingness to restore Russo-American relations to a friendlier footing from their currently poor shape over the war in Syria. If one accepts Trump’s stated willingness to cooperate with Putin over Syria, then Europe is facing the spectre of a Trump/Putin world in 2017.
As America has now taken a more authoritarian turn, Chancellor Merkel’s message of congratulations to Trump was replete with sub-text. She stressed to him that Germany’s close cooperation with the US would be dependent on commitments to democracy and to equality of rights for all. Merkel’s concerns over a Trump/Putin world stem not just from her own problems with the populist and xenophobic movements that have emerged in Germany over recent years, but also from Trump’s statement in an interview that he may not be willing to provide military assistance to the Baltic countries – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – if they come under threat. The interview brought to the surface concerns over regional instability and questions over NATO, especially since Estonia is one of the few European NATO member states paying its full dues to the alliance.
More shocks to Europe may emerge as well if President Trump decides on an accommodation with Russia over Syria, or if he acts on his publicly declared ‘number one priority’ to ‘dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran’. The Middle East is on tenterhooks. War in Syria is destabilising Turkey and Lebanon. Issues such as security, terrorism and the mass movement of populations dominate all debates on the region. The search for regional stability here seems more forlorn than ever and Trump’s assurances that he has a secret plan to ‘knock the hell out of ISIS’ do not lessen these insecurities. [...]
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