18 April 2018

The Guardian: Each Brexit scenario will leave Britain worse off, study finds

Polling commissioned for study by Populus, which is run by David Cameron’s former strategy chief Andrew Cooper, found that voters, even those who backed Brexit, feared that leaving the European Union would come at “too high a price”. [...]

The Global Future research is based on the government’s own impact studies on three different Brexit scenarios, but also examines a fourth option – a bespoke deal – using data from the official assessments along with details set out by the prime minister in her Mansion House speech. 

It suggested that option would increase the cost of non-tariff barriers by £23bn over the status quo. Other costs – including customs barriers, divorce payments and ongoing contributions – would add another £38bn while limits on free movement would dent the economy by £6bn.

However, the analysis found that a bespoke deal could also bring in £27bn extra to the Treasury, including from customs revenue and EU budget savings. Overall, the net cost of the deal would be £40bn a year by 2033-34, or £615m a week in today’s prices.

After looking at all four options available to the prime minister, the study established that in the long-term, the amount of money available for spending on public services would fall. Under the so-called Norway option, there would be £262m less a week, under the Canada model it would be £877m, while under a no deal it would be £1.25bn.

This would mean 22% less funding available for the NHS if there was a bespoke deal, and 9%, 31% and 44% less under each of the other options.

A poll of 2,000 people for Global Future found they overwhelmingly thought all four possible deals – bespoke, remaining in the European Economic Area, a free trade agreement and crashing out onto World Trade Organization terms – were bad.

It also found that 72% of those who voted leave thought that £615m a week would be too high a price to pay for the bespoke deal; while 78% felt it was worse than they had hoped for when casting their vote in the EU referendum. [...]

Full article on The Guardian

Global Future polling results

© The Guardian