21 November 2017

Financial Times: EU and UK aim to strike Brexit divorce deal within 3 weeks

Britain and the EU are targeting a Brexit divorce deal within three weeks, with negotiators drawing up a political roadmap that seeks to overcome the toughest unresolved issues on a financial settlement and Northern Ireland.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s moves to settle the “divorce bill” have given new momentum to talks and negotiators have pencilled in the week of December 4 as a breakthrough moment when the two sides, within days, take decisive steps to open a second phase of trade talks.

EU diplomats say there is a better than evens chance of agreement on “sufficient progress” at an EU summit on December 14-15. But they warn that political miscalculations over the hardest remaining issues could easily derail plans.

Britain has yet to disclose its offer details and diplomats fear the gap with the EU may still be large. Germany and France remain adamantly against Britain withholding part of a financial settlement as “leverage” in later trade negotiations — a condition demanded by some Brexiters in cabinet. A viable compromise on the highly sensitive issue of the Northern Ireland border also remains elusive.

Mrs May will take a hands-on role in the final stages of the divorce negotiation. Triggering an elaborately choreographed sequence, she is set to see Donald Tusk, the European Council president, on Friday and Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, for dinner on December 4. Some diplomats expect the dinner to be the moment when a formal UK offer is submitted. Although there will be no official negotiating rounds, technical discussions are continuing “below the radar” on a regular basis, spurred on by Mrs May’s desire to reach a deal.

Negotiators aim to complete this “stock taking” process by December 1, including the draft of a joint EU-UK text. The EU side insists it will not be possible to “jump together” but say a response can be made with little delay once a UK submission is made. 

The prime minister was encouraged that Eurosceptic ministers including Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, did not immediately distance themselves from paying €40bn or more to the EU for Brexit. “Everyone remained disciplined,” said one ally of Mrs May.

But Mr Johnson and David Davis, Brexit secretary, insist some money must be held back to ensure the UK has negotiating clout to strike a favourable trade deal next year, a potential stumbling block for many net contributor countries, including Germany and the Netherlands. [...]

Full article on Financial Times (subscription required)

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