19 May 2017

Global Future: The case for immigration

Meeting the Government’s target of cutting immigration to less than 100,000 will not only be extremely difficult, it is also overwhelmingly undesirable, according to research group Global Future.

The Case For Immigration concludes the net number of workers coming from overseas will have to reach an absolute minimum level of 200,000 a year for the foreseeable future if the UK is to sustain economic and productivity growth, stabilise the working age population and maintain public finances at a time when the number of pensioners is expected to double and prevent severe staff shortages in important industries and services including the NHS.

Conclusion

[...] The UK is close to full employment, has an ageing population and low productivity growth. These factors make immigration an essential ingredient of a successful economy in the years ahead. Global Future’s top-down economic view is that a net migration figure well in excess of 200,000 a year will be needed long into the future to avoid catastrophic consequences for the economy.

Furthermore, the bottom-up analysis which shows many sectors are already on a cliff-edge in terms of labour shortages, also confirms that a migration figure in excess of 200,000 will be needed to avoid collapse of whole sectors, as well as to prevent the crisis in public services such as Social Care and the NHS getting worse. [...]

This report shows that the Government’s target of cutting net migration to the tens of thousands, either immediately or in the long-term, is based on an outdated and backward looking view of policy in this area. The clear conclusion of this report is that making substantial cuts in immigration to these levels is not only very difficult but also overwhelmingly undesirable. [...]

It means the case for staying in the single market is not limited to free trade – in goods, capital and services – to which most political parties pay at least lip service. Indeed, there is a strong positive argument that can be made for the continued free movement of people to and from the EU rather than accepting the characterisation of this as a downside of single market membership.

[...] Authors believe that priority should be given to clarifying the position of EU nationals in order to prevent an unwanted exodus from the UK. They also believe that the Government should refrain from setting artificial targets for net migration. Finally, researchers believe that politicians and political parties in this General Election should have the courage to speak out and make the positive case for case for net migration to continue at a level of at least 200,000 people a year.

Indeed, in the years to come it is entirely possible that the debate on immigration may shift from questions about whether levels are too high to asking what we do to make sure numbers are sufficient to meet the needs of the country. [...]

Full report

© Global Future