26 February 2014

Election update: Juncker endorsed by German Conservatives; Socialists likely to win most seats; Germany scraps 3 per cent threshold

As reported by Reuters, the centre-left is likely to win the most seats in European Parliament elections in May, according to a new survey, boosting the group's chances of also winning the presidency of the European Commission.

The Socialists and Democrats, the second-largest group in the 751-seat parliament, will take 221 seats, a 14 per cent improvement on their current standing, according to PollWatch, an analysis of opinion polls led by professors at the London School of Economics and Trinity College Dublin. The centre-right Group of the European People's Party – currently the biggest in the Parliament with 274 seats – would lose about a quarter of its current representation, dropping to 200 seats.

Euroscepticism

The traditional parties are still expected to hold about 70 per cent of the legislature, which is a fall from today's levels of about 85 per cent but is likely to be a relief to supporters of European integration. According to the PollWatch estimates, a far-right group composed of Marine Le Pen's National Front (France), Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV, Netherlands), the Freedom Party (Austria), Flemish Interest (Vlaams Belang, Belgium), the Sweden Democrats and the Northern League (Italy) is a possibility. These groups are slated to win 38 seats, but would need to secure members from seven countries. 

Commission Presidency

An own-initiative report by Paulo Rangel MEP (EPP) on the implementation of the Lisbon Treaty with respect to the European Parliament has been approved by large majority in the Constitutional Affairs Committee of the European Parliament. "The proposals I made in my report had three purposes in mind: strengthening the democratic legitimacy of the European Commission, strengthening the implementation of the principle of separation of powers in the Union and increasing scrutiny of the European Parliament. I believe that we reached a good result that contributes to reinforcing the sustainability of the European Union's democratic process."  

PES / Schulz

European Parliament President Martin Schulz, the Left's leading candidate to become the next president of the European Commission, laid out his campaign proposals, saying it was essential to restore citizens' trust in the European Union. Acknowledging that Europe had lost its way after four years of economic crisis, Schulz listed his campaign goals as tackling youth employment, investing in renewable energy and the digital economy, and strengthening education. "To regain trust, to get people back on track in favor of the European Union, we must reform," he told Reuters in an interview. 

EPP

The Wall Street Journal (subscription) reports that German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), has endorsed former Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker to lead Europe's centre-right into this May's European elections. SpiegelOnline adds that the CDU executive committee had voted to this effect unanimously. The CDU-CSU endorsement means their delegates are expected to vote for Mr Juncker at the European People's Party congress in March, making Mr Juncker a clear favourite ahead of former Latvian Premier Valdis Dombrovskis, who entered the EPP race last week.  "Among all the candidates, we believe Mr Juncker to be the most capable", Mr Ferber, a member of the CSU board, said. He pointed out Mr Juncker's experience in dealing with other European leaders and institutions during his time as Luxembourg prime minister, and his "ability to build bridges" between the bloc's rich and poor members. He is now expected to be nominated officially at the EPP Congress in March, with the chance of any serious contester dwindling.

AECR

As reported by EuropeanVoice (subscription), the group of European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), the bloc of anti-federalist centre-right members of the European Parliament created by the British Conservatives and ally parties in 2009, announced that it will not put forward a candidate for president of the European Commission. Speaking at a press conference announcing the decision, the group's secretary-general, Dan Hannan, said that participating in the process would be to legitimise a federalist vision of a European super-state. "There is no evidence of popular demand for having more pan-European elected positions", he said.  AECR President Jan Zahradil commented in an official statement: "The AECR rejects the federalism of the old parties. We aspire to speak for that large majority of Europeans who have never consented to be citizens of a federal union."

A ComRes poll published to accompany the AECR’s announcement, conducted across the six largest Member States, found that people believe that their countries have already ceded too much power to the EU (by 55 per cent to 25 per cent), that Brussels is out of touch (67 per cent to 19 per cent), and that that the EU is moving in the wrong direction (60 per cent to 24 per cent).

Although the group will not field a candidate, its leaders said they will insist they be allowed to take part in the presidential debates, including a televised debate staged by the European Broadcasting Union. The ECR will select the MEPs to participate in these debates at a later date.  

Member State events

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has nominated Maros Sefcovic, current European Commission vice president, to lead his centre-left party's European ticket and making him the country's official candidate for the next Commission. Sefcovic told Reuters the "democratic deficit" of the Commission's actions had been regularly raised in the past four years. An upcoming European vote will give the European Commission a chance to boost the legitimacy of its executive arm, granting it a stronger mandate to command a sustainable economic recovery, he said in an interview.

Germany - 3 per cent threshold

The Federal Constitutional Court has ruled that the current three per cent threshold that is applicable for parties at European elections is not compatible with the Basic Law, reports SpiegelOnline/(official press release). The restrictive clause was contrary to the principles of electoral equality and equal opportunities of the parties, said the presiding judge Andreas Voßkuhle. "The voice of each voter should have the same chance of success", so Voßkuhle. Exceptions could only be justified by weighty reasons, such as the functioning of Parliament. The judges ruled by a narrow majority of five votes to three.

German Minister of State for Europe Roth issued a statement saying the European Parliament was ‘the pulsating heart of European democracy’.

EP president Martin Schulz, himself a German politician and lead candidate of the Social Democrats, tweeted that he "respects" the verdict, but "would have wished for something else". "We must mobilise now and prevent the entry of extremist parties in the EP", he added. (EUobserver)

According to the WSJ, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble sharply criticised the decision to eliminate the 3 per cent entry hurdle: "I think the constitutional court hasn't really understood what is the role of the European Parliament…I think it wasn't the right decision in relation to the European Parliament", said Schäuble. His comment is unusual as generally German politicians tend not to criticise the court, out of respect for its independence. 

Rebecca Harms, President of the Greens/EFA in the European Parliament and top Green candidate in the European elections commented: "The judgement of the Federal Constitutional Court is evidence either of ignorance or disrespect for the European Parliament and its work for European democracy. For the Bundestag a five per cent threshold is regarded as necessary to keep it from harm, yet the Federal Constitutional Court decides that for the European Parliament no threshold is seen as desirable and justified as a contribution to democracy. In all large EU countries, there are good reasons for percentage thresholds. I assume that the German Federal Government will have to address the question of European suffrage after the European elections. The moment seems to have finally arrived for a uniform electoral law in the European Union."