16 January 2014

John Wyles: A crucial time for the EU

This is not to suggest that the EU faces imminent break-up or political paralysis, though either may be a feature of future political scenarios. However, the direction of travel is being determined by dwindling public support for further European integration and the institutions that symbolise it. Europe's political classes are nervous and anxious at the prospect of a decisive thinning of the crowd that once cheered for European unity. By contrast, the sight offers nothing but encouragement for those who dream of strict curbs on ‘Brussels' or even of taking their countries out of the Union. In reaction, governments, gradually and almost imperceptibly, are adopting a crablike shuffle away from the model of political and economic integration that has ruled for most of the last 60 years.

It is not neat nor pretty. The UK stands at the extreme, but it is by no means alone in wanting to trim the powers of Brussels. Tension is rising elsewhere between loyal adherents to the Monnet model of integration and those insisting on the preservation and revival of national prerogatives. The result is a complex mish-mash of policies and processes best exemplified by the probably unsustainable new frameworks for financial regulation and co-ordination of macro-economic policies.

Crucially, Germany is no longer an unambiguous advocate of the present confusing status quo. By all accounts, Chancellor Angela Merkel wants more Europe but less Brussels bureaucracy. She is far from alone in desiring Member States to lead rather than be led by Brussels. “I want a Europe of results, not of administration", says Matteo Renzi, the newly-elected leader of the centre-left Democratic Party in Italy. He is almost certainly a future prime minister of a country whose commitment to European integration has been massively diluted by economic recession and political weakness.

If the euro-hostiles do as well as is generally expected, political parties will try to present their success as the usual protest against the mainstream that has been a feature of previous elections to the European Parliament – especially if voter turnout continues to decline. Another straw to clutch at will be the belief that the paltry economic growth forecast for the next couple of years will encourage the millions who deserted them to return to previous party loyalties by the next round of national elections.

Obviously protest against national policies and politicians will be a powerful element influencing voting in many countries. But for the first time, protest against Union policies – above all economic austerity and internal migration – will carry an insurgent tide into Brussels. Unavoidably, governments will have to take a fresh look at the balance of competences between the Union and its member countries. And a revision through subsequent treaty changes could be equally unavoidable.

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